UPDATE 3-Elan Q4 loss trebles but sees 30 pct revenue rise

(Adds CEO and CFO comments, details on pipeline)

By Paul Hoskins

DUBLIN, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Drugmaker Elan Corp's (ELN.I) loss trebled in the fourth quarter but the company forecast a 30 percent rise in revenues over the coming year on rising demand for its flagship multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri.

"We remain confident that we will achieve our target of having 100,000 patients on Tysabri therapy by the end of 2010," Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke said of the drug co-developed with U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O).

Cooke told reporters on Wednesday he expected Tysabri to achieve lifetime sales of $1 billion in the next 12 months or so, helped by the fact that it will soon also be available in the United States as a treatment for the bowel disorder Crohn's.

Overall revenue rose 35 percent to $759.4 million in 2007.

"We look forward to 2008 with great optimism and see revenues growing by over 30 percent towards the $1 billion mark," Cooke said in a statement.

Dublin-based Elan's ELN.L basic loss per share widened to $0.18 in the three months to the end of December from 6 cents in the same period of 2006. The loss was worse than the 16.5 cents average of six analysts' forecasts compiled by Reuters.

For 2007 as a whole, Elan's (ELN.N) net loss worsened to $405 million from $267.3 million as it pointed to higher R&D costs and one-off charges relating to generic competition, restructuring in the United States and early repayment of debt.

The previous year had also been helped by $63.4 million in one-off net gains.

"STRONG PIPELINE"

At an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) level its full-year loss narrowed, however, to $30.4 million from $91.1 million in 2006, and Elan said it aimed for a core loss of less than $50 million in 2008.

Analysts described the results as solid but said there may be some disappointment that the company expected operating costs to rise to between $625 million and $675 million in 2008 from $602 million last year and delay a return to profitability.

"EBITDA breakeven is still guided for 2008, albeit as a second rather than a first-half phenomenon," Jack Gorman, analyst at Elan's broker Davy, wrote in a research note.

"Although this financial milestone is deferred, and may cause disappointment this morning, the reasons are R&D-driven which ultimately should be beneficial for what is a very strong pipeline story."

Shares in Elan were up 0.2 percent at 17.33 euros in Dublin by 1535 GMT, outperforming a 0.8 percent fall for the broader Irish market .ISEQ.

TOUGHER GUIDELINES

The company, recovering from a brush with bankruptcy in 2002, hopes growing demand for Tysabri will ensure a return to profitability. It returned to the market with tougher MS prescription guidelines in 2006 after sales were suspended in 2005 over links to a rare and potentially fatal brain disease.

Chief Executive Kelly Martin said it should be launched in the U.S. as a Crohn's treatment in March. But he said it could be two to three years before enough data was available to satisfy EU regulators, who blocked the drug for use in Crohn's last July.

"There are no higher risks with this drug than anything we have seen to date," Kelly said, when asked about a letter in a medical journal earlier this year that said two MS patients had been diagnosed with skin cancer while taking Tysabri.

"It's simply an observation by two doctors," Martin said. "It's not something that we have any data on."

Kelly said initial results from Phase II trials of the AAB-001 drug it is developing with Wyeth WYE.N as a potential Alzheimer's treatment should be published by the middle of the year. Advanced Phase III tests are already underway.

(Editing by Quentin Bryar and Quentin Webb)