Separatist Northern League makes gains in Italy

ROME (Reuters) - A separatist party that would like to declare Italy's rich north a sovereign republic independent from Rome was on course on Monday to be a surprise winner in Italy's election.

A partial count suggested the Northern League, a junior partner of conservative election winner Silvio Berlusconi, could win 8-9 percent of the national vote, doubling the 4.5 percent it won at the last election in 2006.

Most of the League's supporters are concentrated in the industrial north it calls "Padania". Its firebrand leader, Umberto Bossi, once recommended the navy should fire at migrant boat people.

An economic downturn and concerns about immigration appear to have galvanized support for the League, which used a campaign poster featuring a native American and the slogan: "They were also subjected to immigration, now they live in reserves."

"The wind is blowing from the north. It's a great result for the League," parliamentarian Roberto Cota said at party headquarters in Milan.

"(Berlusconi) will win thanks to the League," political commentator Sergio Romano told reporters during the count. "And if the League is decisive, he'll have to pay for it."

PRICE TO PAY?

Bossi brought down the first Berlusconi government just months after it took office in 1994 but proved a loyal partner in the 2001-6 administration. A mere 3.9 percent of the vote ensured his party three significant ministerial posts.

Despite suffering a stroke in 2004, Bossi, 66, remains firmly in control and will demand more this time, political analysts said.

Gian Enrico Rusconi, a politics professor at Turin university, said the strength of the League could slow down any economic reforms Berlusconi might want to pass.

"They are going to raise their price for cooperation," he told Reuters. "I don't think a Berlusconi government will be capable of pushing through the reforms that Italy needs. The Northern League is a protectionist party."

"The first policy will be fiscal federalism, that way our mayors won't have to go cap in hand to Rome to ask for money," Bossi said, vowing to push a tax reform which would see fewer riches transferred from north to south.

Even before the final result, the League was hinting at its demands. A councilor at the regional government of Lombardy, the Milan area, said it would be "difficult not to ask for the presidency of the Lombardy region" currently held by a member of Berlusconi's People of Freedom party.

In Milan, views of the League's performance were mixed.

"I am not surprised they're doing well. They have support here. People are turning to them for order," said a man in a Milan cafe who gave his name only as Giuliano.

Enrica Galiani, 32, was less pleased. "It is worrying that many people would vote for them. It scares me to think what they could do," she said.

(Additional reporting by Gilles Castonguay, Marie-Louise Gumuchian and Ilaria Polleschi in Milan)