INSTANT VIEW: Italian projections show Berlusconi ahead
ROME (Reuters) - Following are comments from political scientists and economists on first projections in the Italian parliamentary election which pointed to a more clear-cut victory for Silvio Berlusconi than earlier exit polls.
GIAN ENRICO RUSCONI, POLITICS PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF TURIN
"Maintaining all the caution that is warranted at this stage of the vote count, it seems to me that the gap is on the large side and will be difficult to overhaul.
"But it's still going to be hard for Berlusconi to make his coalition work. And I don't think Veltroni is going to be that upset at his showing. Personally, it's a success for him.
"I think Berlusconi's real problem is going to be holding together his coalition, and especially dealing with the Northern League. They are going to raise their price for cooperation. Berlusconi is not going to have an easy time.
"I don't think a Berlusconi government will be capable of pushing through the reforms that Italy needs. The Northern League is a protectionist party. The National Alliance is a protectionist party."
FRANCO PAVONCELLO, POLITICS PROFESSOR AT JOHN CABOT
UNIVERSITY IN ROME
"It's a bit too soon to say.
"One thing we can certainly say is that once again there is confirmation that when Forza Italia, Alleanza Nazionale and the Northern League come together they are a very, very powerful force. And that at the same time, we can say that the extreme left without the centre left is much weaker. Those are two elements we can say now.
"But to say what's going to happen in terms of ruling, in terms of governing or anything we have to look at the Senate -- at the real results by region. Or else we don't know much."
SILVIA PEPINO, JP MORGAN
"If Berlusconi wins a clear victory, as these projections suggest, we will at least have a government and that is a better outcome for the economy than the uncertainty of a hung parliament.
"But Italy's economic problems are very long-standing and deep rooted and it's difficult to see any progress in the near term whatever the outcome of the election."
LUIGI SPERANZA, ECONOMIST, BNP PARIBAS
"These projections put Berlusconi firmly ahead, which raises the chances of a strong government.
"That is good news for the economy, so it would be a more favorable outcome for markets than the picture of instability which was on the cards after the exit polls."
JAMES WALSTON, POLITICS PROFESSOR AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF
ROME
"It really was never in doubt that Berlusconi was going to take the lower house. The Senate is likely, but he needs well over 160 senators. So, until we start getting real numbers he can't relax."
SUSANA GARCIA, DEUTSCHE BANK
"These projections are more in line with expectations and the opinion polls we were seeing.
"It obviously means Berlusconi has a better chance of winning a majority in both houses, which would raise the chance of a stronger government that can last, but it still remains to be seen if it would pass reforms.
"Berlusconi's last government fell short of all its promises and did little in terms of economic reform despite having a comfortable majority in both houses.
"And then he had a clearer, more ambitious program than he does now and a more favorable international economic environment."
