PREVIEW-Kyrgyz referendum seen as step toward snap election
By Olga Dzyubenko
BISHKEK, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan votes on a set of constitutional amendments on Sunday in a referendum expected to lead to snap parliamentary polls that will boost President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's grasp on power in the Central Asian state.
Kyrgyzstan, home to a U.S. and a Russian military base, has been unstable since 2005 when mass protests ousted veteran leader Askar Akayev and brought Bakiyev to power.
Ever since, Bakiyev has been at loggerheads with parliament, which is packed with his opponents, elected under Akayev's rule.
"If the referendum passes, Bakiyev will be able to gain substantial powers over the parliament and government," Eurasia Daily Monitor, published by the Washington-based think tank, the Jamestown Foundation, wrote in a note.
The changes strengthen Bakiyev's authority in picking the prime minister and cabinet members and dissolving parliament.
Analysts expect Bakiyev to call early elections as soon as December, though he has not said whether he will do so.
The amendments also change the election process from a single-constituency system to a proportional all-party list, which should help Bakiyev gain a power base in the chamber through his newly formed Ak Zhol party.
Bakiyev, elected in 2005 a vote judged free and fair by Western monitors, is seen as a relative liberal in Central Asia, but his moves to consolidate power echo those of other ex-Soviet leaders who have tightened their grip on power in recent years.
In neighbouring Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev is head of a party which controls all seats in the lower house. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin plans to head the pro-Kremlin party's list in a December parliamentary election.
Politicians say a tougher approach by Bakiyev, accused of not being aggressive enough to end infighting and focus on urgent matters such as poverty, would help ease tensions.
"Some see authoritarian tendencies in the constitution. But it is still a step forward," said Melis Yeshimkanov, a deputy. "The foundation has been laid. It will be parties and ideas, not clans or business groups, who will be fighting for seats."
But some were sceptical in a country where public discontent has been brewing because of rising food prices and crime. A turnout below 50 percent would make the referendum invalid.
"I don't know whether I will vote. Why should I?" said Sergei, a 38-year-old resident of the capital Bishkek. "I don't care whether it's a good constitution. The problem is that any constitution, even if it's bad, should be abided by."
