Separatists and states see hope and fear in Kosovo

LONDON (Reuters) - Newly independent Kosovo might be a unique case, experts say, but it has nonetheless given fresh hope to separatist movements around the world and created a worrying precedent for nations with restive regions.

Effectively under international administration since NATO bombing forced the withdrawal of Serb forces in 1999, Kosovo follows the former Indonesian region of East Timor into independence -- and others are hoping to achieve similar status.

That worries countries from Spain to Sri Lanka, who are fighting their own insurgencies and independence movements and whose concern has led them to refuse to recognize Kosovo.

Almost all of those who have accepted Kosovo as the world's newest state have been keen to stress its uniqueness, citing its history, a near decade under international administration and its status as the final part to break away from former Yugoslavia.

The United States and others recognizing Kosovo say Serbia lost the moral authority to the region because of atrocities, massacres and ethnic cleansing, and after negotiations repeatedly failed to find another solution.

"The mere fact that everyone is going to such great lengths to say it is a unique case and doesn't set a precedent means that ultimately it does set a precedent," said international relations lecturer Spyros Economides at the London School of Economics.

"It establishes a precedent that you can overturn national sovereignty for apparent moral or humanitarian reasons -- but we only apply it selectively."

For example, Western powers were happy to recognize Kosovo, but not Chechnya or Kurdistan, he added, for fear of overly upsetting Russia or Turkey.

Essentially, NATO had intervened militarily to back a separatist rebel group and Western states had nine years later formalized that independence, he said -- a significant shift from previous ideas of state sovereignty.

That is a step beyond what happened with the birth of other new nations born in recent years such as Eritrea, which broke away from Ethiopia, or East Timor. Indonesia's 1975 invasion of East Timor was never recognized by the United Nations.

"There is a conflict between two key legal standards," said Sabine Freizer, head of European programs at the International Crisis Group. "There is the principle of territorial integrity which conflicts with the right to self-determination."

NEVER WITHDRAW

Kosovo's independence announcement rippled through the world's separatist movements and breakaway states, which range from disputed slivers of former Soviet republics to remote rebel enclaves in Asia or Africa.

A pro-Tamil Tiger rebel Web site said the recognition "debunked" arguments that a separate ethnic Tamil state in northern and eastern Sri Lanka was unviable.

Georgia said it feared Kosovo's independence may embolden breakaway movements in the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions.

Moldova, with its own Russian-speaking breakaway region of Transdniestra, also warned it could be a "factor of destabilization in Europe".

Ultimately, Economides said there was a risk countries -- possibly including Russia, a long-term Serbian ally angry at Western recognition of Kosovo -- might recognize other breakaway states in their neighbors in an attempt to destabilize them.

Experts say that, at the very least, Kosovo's fate acts as a drastic disincentive for countries to allow large multinational peacekeeping forces into areas such as Sudan's Darfur region that might in future want independence or greater autonomy.

Sri Lanka's ambassador to Geneva and the United Nations Dayan Jayatilleka said Serb forces should have held their ground in 1999 and fought NATO troops back.

"The...independence of Kosovo is the result of the failure of political will on the part of the ex-Yugoslav leadership," he wrote in a Sri Lankan newspaper, drawing lessons for his own country, where government forces are launching an assault into rebel territory where Tamil Tigers run a de facto state.

"Never withdraw the armed forces from any part of territory in which they are challenged, and never permit a foreign presence on (your) soil."

(Editing by Kate Kelland and Jon Boyle)