Little chance of Kirkuk vote in 2007: Iraqi MP

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A referendum to decide the status of the potential flashpoint Iraqi city of Kirkuk has little chance of being held this year, partly because time has run out to prepare for the vote, a senior Iraqi politician said.

The referendum for the ancient northern city, provided for in the Iraqi constitution, was due by the end of the year.

But the Independent Electoral Commission would need at least seven months from now to get ready, deputy parliament speaker Khaled al-Attiya told Reuters in an interview late on Wednesday.

Parliament also has to pass a law setting a date for a plebiscite that is hotly disputed by the different sects in the oil-rich city.

"Even if we issued a law today and said hold a referendum in Kirkuk, we would not be able to unless the technical side was covered," said Attiya, an independent Shi'ite lawmaker and senior member of the ruling Shi'ite Alliance.

"The commission said it needs at least seven months to do this. So I think it will not be possible to do it this year."

RED LINE

Kirkuk is a mixed city of Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad.

Kurdish nationalists want Kirkuk included in their northern autonomous region and the referendum held by the year's end, regarding the plebiscite as a "red line" issue.

Arabs and Turkmen fear they will be pushed out of the city if it goes ahead and want the referendum stalled or put off for good. Analysts fear a bloodbath if the vote goes ahead against the wishes of other sects.

Attiya acknowledged that not holding the vote in 2007 would breach the constitution, but he said there was little choice. Technical difficulties were not the only obstacle, he added.

"There are still political difficulties. It is a sensitive matter and it needs some time," he said, without elaborating.

"The Kirkuk issue ... has regional and international implications."

Among the issues that need to be dealt with before a referendum goes ahead is a census and a "normalization" process mandated under Article 140 of Iraq's 2005 constitution.

"normalization" involves paying compensation to Arab settlers to reverse Saddam Hussein's Arabisation policy of the 1970s and 1980s, when thousands of Kurds and Turkmen were expelled from Kirkuk to be replaced by Arabs.

Sunni Arabs fear that "normalization" -- under which Arab families have been offered $15,000 and land to return to their original home towns -- is an attempt to influence the outcome of the vote by changing Kirkuk's demographics.

Others believe it is an unsubtle attempt by Kurds to deny others a share of the area's oil wealth.

Neighboring Turkey, meanwhile, fears Iraqi Kurds will wrest control of Kirkuk and turn it into the capital of a new state, possibly reigniting separatism among its own sizeable Kurdish population.