UN to vote on extending Ethiopia-Eritrea mission

(Changes first paragraph to refer to Security Council consultations, not vote)

By Jack Kimball

ASMARA, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Distracted by Kenya and Somalia, the U.N. Security Council will make only a cursory effort to heal an Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute on Friday at consultations on whether to extend a peacekeeping mission there, diplomats and analysts say.

Despite warnings that the highly militarised border is on a knife-edge, diplomats say the United Nations will extend its mission but will not tackle the impasse that has already seen two of the world's poorest nations fight a war.

"The U.N. Security Council will not put pressure (on either side) to solve the issue, but they cannot be seen to disengage by withdrawing either," said an Asmara-based diplomat on condition of anonymity.

The United Nations said on Tuesday it may be forced to halt operations within weeks after Eritrea cut fuel supplies in December. The world body says Asmara has been restricting fuel since 2006 as relations between them continue to get frostier.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote in a letter to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki that the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) only had enough fuel to last to March 1.

"Given the gravity of the situation, I have to ... alert the (Security) Council of the imminent need for a decision on the fate of UNMEE if the crisis is not resolved by the end of this month," Ban wrote in the letter, seen by Reuters.

The peacekeeping mission's mandate -- part of a peace deal ending a 1998-2000 border war -- expires at the end of January.

"The international community ... are worrying about Kenya and Somalia. This Ethiopia-Eritrea border issue is a non-issue for the big players at moment," said a UK-based analyst, who asked not to be to be named.

'OCCUPATION'

In November, an independent boundary commission charged with marking the border dissolved itself, having failed to get Ethiopia to assent to a 2002 border ruling that awarded the flashpoint town of Badme to Eritrea.

This was despite an earlier agreement by both sides that they would accept whatever the commission ruled. Ethiopia wants more talks before implementing the ruling. Asmara rejects that.

The two insist they will not start a war but both have moved tens of thousands of troops to the 1000-km (620-mile) border. Eritrea has repeatedly accused Ethiopia of planning to invade.

The 15-nation council will not take on these issues but for that reason will need to maintain a peacekeeping force to paper over the cracks until the two nations come to a settlement.

"The fact is the situation on the ground hasn't really changed. The border in fact hasn't been demarcated," David Shinn, former U.S. envoy to Ethiopia, told Reuters by telephone. "It's in the interest of the U.N. to have a force there."

Diplomats expect Eritrea to be infuriated by any bland statement that fails to explicitly condemn Ethiopia for reneging on the agreement. That will incline it towards being obstructive of the U.N., which it sees as favouring Ethiopia.

Asmara has already expelled Western peacekeepers and banned helicopter flights. The mission is increasingly unwelcome.

In a letter to the council this month, Isaias said the continued presence of the U.N. in Eritrea would be tantamount to "maintaining occupation." (Editing by Tim Cocks and Giles Elgood)