Oil prices to average near $65 this year and next

LONDON (Reuters) - Analysts have raised their average oil price forecasts for this year and next as tight global energy supplies were expected to offset any weakening of the U.S. economy, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The monthly survey of 35 analysts put the consensus forecast for U.S. crude futures CLc1 this year at an average of $64.90 a barrel, up 20 cents from last month's poll.

Analysts predicted Brent crude futures LCOc1 to average $66.30 a barrel, down one cent from July's poll.

"The major bullish factor is OPEC's continued nonchalance in the face of higher demand and falling forecasts for non-OPEC growth," said Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI) in a research note.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is under growing pressure from consuming nations to increase production at its meeting in Vienna next month. The group last year agreed to cut 1.7 million barrels per day.

Prices have fallen since reaching a record peak of $78.77 a barrel on August 1, but remain firm near $70.

The recent sell-off has been driven by fund selling as traders flee risky investments in the wake of a global credit crunch.

But even if the subprime mortgage crisis manages to slow the U.S. economy, analysts remain bullish that strong fundamentals will keep oil prices high.

"The tight oil situation is being driven by supply rather than demand factors and energy demand growth is centered in emerging economies, suggesting that a material global slowdown would need to be realized to have a meaningful impact on oil demand," said Goldman Sachs Commodity Research in its weekly report.

Analysts also warned a hurricane or an unseasonably cold winter could easily drive prices back to record levels.

"If this winter proves harsh, or even only more seasonal than last year's mild weather, the resulting draw on heating oil could force refiners to raise runs sharply, putting more pressure on likely low crude stocks," ESAI said.

Analysts forecast U.S. crude prices in 2008 to average $64.79 a barrel, up 48 cents from last month's poll. Brent was seen at $65.15.

Medium-term forecasts showed analysts expect oil prices in 2010 to average $57.59 for U.S. crude and $55.41 for Brent.

Reuters monitors price forecasts by analysts, consultants and government bodies.

Following are updated projections.

For the forecast table and derived data, click on POLL70. For historical polling data, click on <0#CL/FST> for U.S. crude and <0#LCO/FST> for Brent.

Forecasts are in dollars per barrel.

Brent U.S. Brent U.S. Brent U.S. Brent U.S. Brent U.S.

Company Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 2007 2007 2008 2008 2010 2010

Banc of - - - - 66.77 63.99 62.50 60.00 50.00 50.00

America

Barclays Cap 72.10 72.10 69.60 70.00 67.30 66.30 73.60 73.90 70.80 72.30

BNP Paribas 72.80 69.30 68.70 66.70 66.00 64.80 64.70 65.50 - -

Broker Credit 72.90 70.40 68.40 67.90 67.03 65.37 61.90 62.00 58.10 58.90

Cheuvreux - - - - 62.00 - 60.00 - 50.00 -

CGES 79.20 - 82.80 - 72.20 - 78.00 - - -

Citigroup 67.00 65.00 62.00 60.00 64.00 62.00 60.00 60.00 55.00 55.00

Credit Suisse 66.00 63.00 62.00 60.00 63.69 61.52 60.50 62.50 60.50 60.50

Daiwa 69.00 67.00 64.08 64.00 65.00 63.54 62.00 62.00 50.00 50.50

Deutsche Bank 70.00 68.00 67.00 65.00 66.07 64.06 62.00 62.00 60.00 60.00

DnB NOR 65.00 - 66.00 - 64.00 - 61.00 - 45.00 -

Markets

EIA - 74.71 - 72.67 - 67.61 - 71.25 - -

Economist 77.00 76.96 76.00 76.01 69.91 68.94 69.00 70.03 55.75 65.47

Intelligence Unit

Energy Security - - - - 69.40 67.60 75.30 75.50 67.80 68.30

Analysis, Inc.

Enerpy 73.60 71.00 70.10 68.00 67.50 65.50 66.50 64.90 - -

Limited.com

First Energy 71.00 70.00 67.75 66.75 66.51 65.00 65.00 64.00 60.00 60.00

Capital

Goldman Sachs 71.00 70.50 71.60 72.00 72.50 73.50 - - - -

ING 68.00 64.00 62.00 62.00 64.19 62.26 57.00 58.00 47.00 49.00

JP Morgan 66.00 67.00 59.00 60.00 60.04 61.04 - 51.99 64.00 65.00

Landesbank 75.00 74.00 73.00 73.00 69.00 67.50 78.00 78.00 - -

Baden-Wurttemberg

Lehman 76.00 74.00 75.00 73.00 70.00 68.00 75.00 73.00 - -

Brothers

Macquarie 68.90 68.80 63.66 63.67 64.05 63.95 61.75 62.41 55.75 57.00

Research

Man Financial 70.00 68.00 65.00 63.00 65.00 63.00 73.00 71.00 - -

Merrill Lynch 67.25 66.00 67.50 67.50 65.00 64.00 66.00 66.00 47.50 47.50

Commodity Research

Morgan 72.70 - 70.70 - 67.60 - 63.70 - - -

Stanley

NAB 67.00 66.00 64.50 63.50 64.50 63.00 58.00 60.00 53.00 55.00

Nomisma Energy 66.67 66.20 60.00 59.80 63.27 62.80 56.08 56.28 52.50 53.50

Petromatrix 72.49 71.77 66.00 65.00 66.41 65.01 66.38 65.13 - -

Raymond James - 67.00 - 70.00 - 64.04 - 70.00 - -

RBS 70.00 68.00 65.00 63.00 65.30 63.50 59.00 58.00 - -

Scotia Capital - - - - 65.02 63.52 62.85 62.35 - -

SG CIB 73.00 71.00 66.00 64.50 66.57 64.68 59.00 58.00 - -

Commodities

Standard 68.00 65.00 63.00 63.00 65.00 63.00 60.00 60.00 - -

Chartered

UBS 72.00 70.00 69.00 67.00 67.00 65.00 66.00 65.00 50.00 51.00

UniCredit-MIB 75.00 73.00 72.00 71.00 70.00 68.00 76.00 75.00 - -

Aug 24 Mean 70.85 69.21 67.50 66.36 66.30 64.90 65.15 64.79 55.41 57.59

July 25 Mean 70.61 68.78 67.25 65.83 66.31 64.70 65.01 64.31 55.13 56.78