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FACTBOX: What next in Zimbabwe's political crisis?

Sun Jun 29, 2008 10:20am EDT

(Reuters) - Below are answers to some questions on Zimbabwe's political crisis after President Robert Mugabe was inaugurated for a further five-year term after winning a run-off election in which he was the only candidate.

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Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai withdrew from the run-off, saying violence by Mugabe's supporters meant it could not be fair.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

State media says Mugabe has agreed to post-election talks with the opposition to resolve the political crisis.

Tsvangirai told Britain's Sunday Telegraph it was not inconceivable that Mugabe could stay on as a titular president with himself in the role of executive prime minister.

Previously Tsvangirai said if Mugabe goes ahead with the election and declared himself president, he would be shunned as an illegitimate leader who killed his own people.

Governing the country may be tricky for Mugabe because the opposition won control of parliament in the March 29 general election. Mugabe's ruling party has challenged some of those results.

WHAT IS THE IMPACT ON ZIMBABWE AND SOUTHERN AFRICA?

The prospects of reversing Zimbabwe's economic meltdown are slim without a change in government. Mugabe refuses to consider reforms and Western powers are unlikely to provide the billions of dollars in development aid needed to bail out the economy.

Zimbabwe's neighbors could be swamped with an even bigger influx of refugees.

An estimated 3 million Zimbabweans are in South Africa, where there are rising anti-immigrant feelings. More than 60 African migrants were killed in recent attacks by mobs there.

Investors keen to invest in Zimbabwe will keep plans on hold despite a widespread belief that the once-prosperous economy could bounce back quickly under a new government.

HOW WILL AFRICA AND THE WORLD REACT?

The 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) is under increasing pressure to help settle the crisis. Leaders of the African Union will discuss Zimbabwe at a summit in Egypt on Monday. Mugabe has said he will attend the summit.

Military intervention by SADC or the African Union is not seen as an option. Any such move is likely to face strong opposition from South Africa, the regional political and economic powerhouse.

U.S. President George W. Bush on Saturday ordered fresh sanctions against Zimbabwe, saying the run-off election was a sham.

WILL THERE BE MORE VIOLENCE?

Tsvangirai has sought refuge at the Dutch embassy since June 22, fearing for his safety.

The MDC and trade unions could take to the streets to protest against Mugabe's government, but that would probably prompt a heavy backlash by well-equipped security forces. Tsvangirai and other MDC officials were beaten in an aborted March 2007 rally.

HOW LONG WILL MUGABE STAY IN POWER?

Mugabe has said he wants to stay on until he is sure that it is impossible to reverse a land redistribution programme that saw thousands of white-owned farms seized and given to poor blacks -- one of the policies blamed for Zimbabwe's collapse.

Some believe victory in the election could allow him to bow out sooner rather than later, by departing from a position of strength in favor of a hand-picked successor, and with the opposition in disarray.

(Reporting by Harare and Johannesburg bureau; Editing by Mary Gabriel)



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