Kenya's "kingmaker" nears the crown

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Dubbed the "kingmaker" for helping put Mwai Kibaki in Kenya's top job five years ago, Raila Odinga looked close to dethroning his former ally on Friday.

His camp oozed confidence as early tallies by local media of Thursday's presidential election gave the 62-year-old former political prisoner a healthy lead over the incumbent.

"We are confident we have won the elections," said Odinga aide Joseph Nyagah, urging the electoral commission to announce official results as quickly as possible.

Odinga realizes a long-held ambition to rule Kenya if he wins the presidency, fulfilling a dream that eluded his late father, a nationalist hero who became vice-president.

With a flair unmatched in Kenya for rousing the masses, Odinga has wooed large groups of voters beyond his traditional Luo base by playing to their disillusionment with the 76-year-old Kibaki's record on graft, security and tribalism.

Success would allow Odinga to shake off for good his image as a behind-the-scenes powerbroker and silence those who deemed him "unelectable" just a few months ago.

"The presidency is something he has wanted for a long time," said George Ogola, a UK-based analyst. "He would be the kingmaker who has made himself king."

When Odinga quit the ruling party of outgoing president Daniel arap Moi in 2002 for a coalition with Kibaki, it was the masterstroke that gave the opposition its broadest ever support among the country's more than 40 tribes.

The move sealed the defeat of Moi's KANU, which had monopolized power since independence in 1963 -- as well as Odinga's reputation for being a wily tactician.

Critics say he is a power-hungry firebrand who displayed his flair for theatrics on voting day.

An angry Odinga stormed out of a polling station when his name did not appear on a voter register, crying foul play. A few hours, and a quick televised interview later, he was back to cast his vote, beaming and mobbed by supporters.

"WARRIOR"

Born in the deprived western Nyanza province, Odinga casts himself as a champion of the poor -- but one, critics say, with an ostentatious flourish, whose preferred mode of transport is a red Hummer for rallies and a blue Jaguar for other business.

The family's molasses plant sits close to the shores of Lake Victoria, the silver-colored landmark rising above the many mud and thatch dwellings of a region that consistently ranks as one of Kenya's least developed.

With an engineering degree from communist East Germany and a son named Fidel Castro, Odinga has had to work hard to prove his capitalist credentials in a country enjoying an economic resurgence after years of decline under Moi.

His own Nairobi constituency spans two worlds -- a suburb of manicured lawns and English-style mansions, and a teeming slum of open sewers and corrugated iron shacks.

Jailed by Moi for protesting one-party rule, Odinga lords it over his own Luo ethnic group, one of Kenya's largest, like a tribal chief, his critics say. His word commands such a following among them that some wonder if there is dark magic at work.

It is this kind of contradiction that has earned Odinga adulation and loathing alike for much of his political life.

"He champions the poor although he's bourgeois proper," said political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi.

A burly man with a penchant for referring to himself in the third person, Odinga is likely to introduce a brash style of leadership, if elected, that will contrast with Kibaki's laissez-faire attitude.

"Raila does not believe in consensus through dialogue, he believes in consensus through domination," Ngunyi said.

Odinga counts Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, Rwanda's Paul Kagame and Nigeria's former leader Olusegun Obasanjo as close friends. A photo of him with U.S. Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama hangs in his office.

Belonging to one of Kenya's elite political dynasties, Odinga credits his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga for instilling in him a sense of nationalism and social equality.

Nicknamed "Agwambo" or warrior in Luo, Odinga was one of Kenya's longest serving political prisoners, spending nine years in jail -- six in solitary confinement.

He was first detained in 1982 after Moi was nearly overthrown in a coup attempt Odinga later revealed he backed.

"Detention is a good school. You learn to reflect and think. You also learn tolerance, to be forgiving, particularly against your adversaries," Odinga told Reuters. "You also learn time is of essence, that things should be done faster and better."

Kenyan voters may soon be holding him to his word.

(Additional reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)