ANALYSIS-Tajikistan's power shortages, prices worry West

By Maria Golovnina

DUSHANBE, May 29 (Reuters) - Power shortages and high food prices in Tajikistan are causing concern in the West about the stability of the Central Asian state bordering Afghanistan.

Russia, which sees Tajikistan as a buffer guarding its traditional sphere of interest in the region, is also watching the country of 7 million people closely for signs of trouble.

The former Soviet republic has largely been calm since the end of a civil war that killed tens of thousands of people in the 1990s, but its economy has been shattered and its utilities are crumbling.

Some Western diplomats say the situation in Tajikistan, a strategically important country in the global fight against drug trafficking, is at a critical point after power shortages which they say left many people feeling abandoned by the government.

"The discontent is real," a senior Western diplomat said. "We've had government officials tell us things such as 'We are lucky we're still here after last winter'."

"People are suffering quite severely," another Western ambassador said.

President Imomali Rakhmon, elected in 1994 and de facto head of state since 1992, tolerates little dissent.

Referring to the next scheduled presidential election, the Western ambassador said: "I don't think they are going to be reconciled by the fact that in five years time they can always vote for somebody else."

Consumer prices rose 19.7 percent in 2007. Gross domestic product grew by 3.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2008, compared to 7.8 percent growth in 2007.

"There is nothing we can do. We are simply trying to survive," said Khikoyat, a mother of six who lives in a small mud-brick house outside the capital Dushanbe.

"A lot of people live without electricity and there is almost no water to grow crops. It is very difficult."



CRISIS, RATIONING

The government began daily rationing of electricity and gas this winter to help millions of Tajiks survive harsh weather, although supplies have now been partially restored.

Electricity is produced domestically, mostly by hydroelectric plants, but power generation suffered this winter when rivers froze. Fuel has to be imported from neighbouring countries to cover any deficit.

In the summer, Tajikistan generates more than enough power but has problems selling it to neighbours because of a poor infrastructure and lower seasonal consumption across the region.

Tajikistan's problems are compounded by the fact it lies on the main heroin trafficking route from Afghanistan to Europe. This fuels corruption and a violent shadow economy.

Diplomats, already concerned by the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, are reluctant to predict what form frustrations may take in a country where the opposition movement is weak and fragmented.

"We've all got an interest in staying in Tajikistan and making sure it doesn't become a failed state," said a Western ambassador who asked not to be named. "It's not the area in the world where you can afford to have a country that's gone wrong."

The diplomats estimate that up to 1 million Tajiks have left their homeland in search of a better life, particularly in Russia, to help their families survive.

Up to two thirds of the economy relies on remittances from Tajiks working abroad. Diplomats call the remittances "staying alive money".

"There are almost no real jobs, no nothing," said Makhmadnabi Shamsiddinov, who spends most of the year working in Russia. "My wife works on a local farm and her wage is just enough to buy some butter and milk."

SPHERE OF INFLUENCE

Dushanbe, a city of 1 million people, is largely quiet. But many houses bear the bullet scars of the fighting in the 1990s.

"If last year it was rare to hear ordinary people openly expressing discontent, then now it's everywhere," said Rakhmatillo Zoyirov, an opposition leader.

He said there had been a number of small regional protests in the past few months.

Any sign of trouble would alarm Moscow, which has fought an increasingly tough battle for influence over countries it still regards as in its sphere of influence in Central Asia.

Russia, which has a small military base in Tajikistan, would fear any instability could spread to neighbouring countries.

Government officials could not be reached to say how Tajikistan planned to tackle its domestic problems, but Rakhmon has vowed to press on with reform. He has said it is up to the people to bring about change.

"It is known that the development of a democratic, lawful and secular state largely depends on the level of people's education and knowledge," he said. "The level of awareness of our people in terms of law and human rights are unsatisfactory." (Editing by Timothy Heritage)