• Most Popular
  • Most Shared

FOREX-Dollar pressured by oil, stocks, data

Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:52am EDT

Stocks

   

* Euro steady at $1.5806 EUR=, near earlier 3-wk high

Currencies  |  Global Markets

* Increased risk aversion benefits yen, Swissie

* Weak U.S. data contrasts with ECB rate hike expectations

By Toni Vorobyova

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of major currencies on Monday, hurt by near record high oil prices, weaker equity markets and U.S. consumer confidence hitting a 28-year low.

Battered stocks and worries over the credit crunch scaled back expectations for how soon the Federal Reserve could boost interest rates after holding them at 2 percent last week.

In contrast, the euro has benefited from widespread expectations of a European Central Bank rate increase to 4.25 percent, while a pick up in risk aversion has boosted the low yielding yen and the safe haven Swiss franc.

"The dollar has been pressured from a number of channels: the relative pricing in central banks, the shift higher in the oil price and the very sharp declines in stock markets," said Teis Knuthsen, head of FX research at Danske Markets in Copenhagen.

"But we are also concerned that the markets are pricing in aggressively the risk of a series of rate hikes from the ECB ... so potentially there is a chance that euro/dollar could falter after the meeting."

The euro rose to a three-week high of $1.5817 EUR=, with analysts saying that a break of technical resistance around the $1.5850 mark could open the door for a move above April's record highs around $1.6020.

The dollar also hit three week lows at 105.52 yen JPY=, 1.0161 Swiss francs CHF= and set a one-month trough of 72.128 versus a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies .DXY.

The dollar came under additional pressure after U.S. financial shares fell on Friday on worries about more credit losses. Lehman Brothers forecast Merrill Lynch MER.N would write down another $5.4 billion in the second quarter, while Moody's said it may cut Morgan Stanley's (MS.N) credit rating.

With Friday's fall, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 14.5 percent for the year, and was more than 20 percent below its October 2007 peak at one point, meeting a traditional definition of a bear market.

GRIST TO THE MILL

Flash euro zone inflation, due at 0900 GMT, is expected to set a fresh record high of 3.9 percent year-on-year in June, giving the ECB more ammunition for tightening monetary policy from 4 percent.

"Last Thursday's Belgian and Friday's German inflation numbers also indicate a further acceleration of euro zone inflation. Euro zone headline inflation might even touch 4 percent," ING said in a research note, adding that the data would be "grist to the mill of the ECB's hawks".

Traders said position adjustment on the last day of the quarter and the half year accentuated market volatility.

The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six currencies, is on track for its first quarterly rise in nearly two years, as a fall of 0.9 percent in June was outweighed by modest gains in April and May.

A light U.S. data calendar on Monday features the Chicago PMI at 1345 GMT, but the week's spotlight is firmly on the non-farm payrolls release on Thursday. (Editing by Mike Peacock)



More from Reuters

Joint Terminal Attack Controller SSgt Clinton J. Herbison, a U.S. Airman from the 817 Expeditionary Air Support Operations Squadron (EASOS) takes a break during a night mission near Honaker Miracle camp at the Pesh valley of Kunar Province August 12, 2009. Credit: REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Pictures of the Year

A look at the best photos of 2009.  Slideshow 

    The Dalai Lama jokes with a nasal spray after being asked his opinion on the swine flu during a press conference after his first lecture in Lausanne, Switzerland, August 4, 2009. REUTERS/ Valentin Flauraud

    What a wacky year it's been...

    Um, what's up the Dalai Lama's nose? "Oddly Enough" editor Bob Basler rounds up the goofiest photos of the year.  Full Article 

    A caution sign is seen next to a stock board at the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in Sydney September 5, 2008. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz
    Political Risk in 2010:

    Don't say we didn't warn you

    With the financial crisis (mostly) in the past, U.S. investors are eying a fresh start to the coming year. Here's a look at what speedbumps lie ahead.  Full Article