LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gasoline prices in Europe dipped
and its crack to crude oil weakened on Tuesday as an analyst
poll showed demand in the United States probablly fell last
week.
The country is European refiners' largest gasoline export
market and weaker demand may further limit the transatlantic
arbitrage opportunity.
The forward curve of gasoline swaps weakened at the front
end, reflecting the weaker cracks and the limited arbitrage
window.
PRICES
* Barges of benchmark 10 ppm premium unleaded winter
gasoline PU-10PP-ARA dipped to trade $700-$705 fob ARA from
$700-$710 at Tuesday's close.
* The fall came despite the gains in crude oil pries and the
Eurograde gasoline's crack to dated Brent BFO- weakened to
$7.85 a barrel from $8.60 at the close.
* Brent crude LCOc1 futures were trading 1.4 percent up at
$77.59 a barrel by 1734 GMT.
* U.S. RBOB gasoline futures RBc1 were up 0.9 percent at
$2.0076 a gallon.
SWAPS
* The backwardation between November and Dcember gasoline
contracts halved to $6 a tonne, with the balance of the month at
$697.50 a tonne.
* The spread between December and January was in 50 cents
wider than Monday's clsoe in contango of $8.
* "The cracks are weaker for sure and the arbitrage is shut
for a while," one broker said.
* The November crack was 50 cents narrowed at $6 a barrel.
The first quarter was $5.30 a barrel.
* Arbitrage swaps showed the arbitrage economics to ship
gasoline improved to a profit of 20 cents a tonne for November
from a loss of 70 cents on Monday. Still, the profitability has
fallen from about $2 a week ago.
* Naphtha swaps were minus $4.35 a tonne for December
cracks.
U.S. OIL DATA [EIA/S]
* Analysts in a Reuters poll expected a 300,000 barrel
increase in U.S. gasoline inventories last week on account of
slightly weaker demand due to rising prices.
week.
* The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its
inventory report for the week to Oct. 30 at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130
GMT) on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will
issue its own report on Wednesday at 10:30 EST (1530 GMT).
(Reporting by Ikuko Kurahone)
