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INSTANT VIEW: Reaction to Yushchenko's threat to call election

KIEV
Wed Sep 3, 2008 8:37am EDT

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko threatened on Wednesday to call a snap election, accusing his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, of wrecking the ruling coalition by joining forces with his rivals.

World

The following are comments from analysts.

KATYA MALOFEEVA, RENAISSANCE CAPITAL

"I think elections are quite likely though it is extremely difficult to say whether they will definitely take place or not.

"I think creating a majority coalition to avoid the dissolution of parliament at the moment would be challenging but not impossible. There is a high probability of a period of significant political disturbance and the next month will be very much about whether people are ready for an election.

"Tymoshenko would be the winner of an election. All the others are likely to see their positions in parliament reduced.

"It should be pretty much business as usual. The fact the political elite is divided has been known forever, that parliament is not functioning properly is also a reality that people know about. People investing in Ukraine understand the fundamentals and know that in Ukraine only those changes to which everyone agrees go ahead -- there's actually significant predictability.

OLEKSANDER DERGACHEV, INDEPENDENT ANALYST

"We need to wait the 10 days out to see whether really the coalition is broken up or not.

"It is obvious that in the eyes of society, Yushchenko has lost. It is obvious that he is following his own aims, that he is defending his future prospects, that he still hopes for success at the presidential elections.

"People in general think that the guilty parties for the break up of the coalition can be found in the presidential office."

ANDREW COLQUHOUN, DIRECTOR OF EMERGING EUROPE SOVEREIGNS AT

FITCH

"There is a risk this will increase worries over political stability and deter foreign investment," he said. "Obviously, it would be positive for Ukraine's creditworthiness to have a stable government able to take the necessary economic policies."

"Countries can get by without governments for a surprising period of time ... Belgium is one example, although obviously its credit profile is rather better than Ukraine's.

VLADIMIR FESENKO, DIRECTOR OF PENTA THINKTANK

"I am 98 percent certain, there will be no (new) formal coalition. This will be neither comfortable for Tymoshenko, nor for Yanukovich. For Tymoshenko's bloc, whose leader is going for the presidential election, a union with Yanukovich would be a huge electoral risk."



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