LONDON Oct 2 The cost of insuring one-year U.S.
government bonds against default rose 5 basis points to 35 bps
on Wednesday, rising above the rate of insuring five-year debt
for the first time in July 2011, according to data from Markit.
One-year U.S. credit default swaps were at their highest
since August 2011. Five-year CDS fell 1 bp to 31 bps.
In normal circumstances, it is costlier to buy longer-term
credit protection and yields on longer-dated debt are usually
higher than on bonds maturing in the near future.
So the current curve inversion - considered a classic sign
of credit stress - reflects investors concern over whether the
United States would be able to raise the debt limit in coming
weeks or risk a U.S. default that could roil global markets.
"It's down to the whole debt ceiling debate as it raises the
possibility of the U.S. defaulting, missing a payment. It's
unlikely but there is still that near-term risk," said Gavan
Nolan, head of credit research at Markit.
President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans came no
closer to ending a standoff on Tuesday that has forced the first
government shutdown in 17 years and thrown hundreds of thousands
of federal employees out of work.