REFILE-UPDATE 3-Novo Nordisk H1 profit up, outlook hits shares
(Refiles to amend ambiguous headline) (Adds liraglutide, analyst, updates shares)
By Rasmus Jorgensen and Kim McLaughlin
COPENHAGEN, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Denmark's Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) posted first-half earnings in line with market expectations on Thursday, but its shares fell as much as 6 percent on a lower-than-expected 2008 profit outlook.
The world's largest diabetes care company said earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose to 5.7 billion Danish crowns ($1.18 billion) from 5.1 billion in the same period of 2007, matching the average forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts.
Sydbank analyst Rune Dahl said Novo had delivered an operating profit outlook upgrade, as the market had expected, but that it had been lower than he had forecast.
"The question is, of course, how big an upgrade (the market) would have wanted. In my estimates, they still have a way to go," he said.
Novo raised its full-year forecast, saying its operating profit would now grow between 22 and 25 percent, from a previous forecast of slightly more than 20 percent, primarily reflecting lowered expectations for non-recurring costs.
The lower end of that range would put full-year operating profit at 10.9 billion crowns, just matching the lowest estimate of the 16 analysts in the Reuters poll. A 25 percent increase would put profits at 11.2 billion crowns, in line with the mean estimate in the poll, where estimates ranged as high as 11.9 billion.
By 1440 GMT, Novo's shares were 5.6 percent lower at 305 crowns, underperforming the Copenhagen top-20 OMX index , which was down 1.6 percent. Novo's shares had gained 10 percent in the two weeks before Thursday's results. The stock has fallen about 9 percent over the last year, in line with the performance of the DJ Stoxx Health Care Index .SXDP.
Citi said in a research note the underlying strength of Novo's business was already well reflected by its significant premium of 50 to 60 percent to the European pharmaceuticals sector on estimated 2009-2010 earnings and maintained its "Hold" rating on the share.
Sales grew 7 percent to 21.7 billion crowns.
MODERN INSULINS
Europe's sixth-largest pharmaceuticals group by market value said the primary growth contribution was from modern, genetically improved, insulins.
The Bagsvaerd-based group, which competes with larger drugmakers Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) in diabetes care, said it kept its position as global leader in insulin with a 52 percent market share. It has 44 percent of the modern insulin market measured by volume, up from 43 percent in the first quarter.
The sale of its modern insulins rose 30 percent in local currencies, and by 21 percent in Danish crowns to 7.9 billion.
Novo said NovoMix became its second modern insulin product to reach blockbuster status, amassing sales of more than $1 billion over the last 12 months.
"All regions realised solid growth rates for the modern insulins, with North America and Europe as the primary contributors to growth," Novo said.
Chief Executive Lars Sorensen told a conference call he did not expect U.S. health regulators to require cardiovascular trials for Novo's experimental type 2 diabetes drug liraglutide prior to regulatory approval, expected in March next year.
The FDA is weighing tougher requirements about potential cardiovascular effects for new diabetes drugs, and analysts have been concerned this may delay the drug's launch.
Jyske Bank analyst Peter Andersen said there was still uncertainty surrounding the approval process for liraglutide, however, despite Sorensen's comments. (Editing by Will Waterman)
