Transneft sees Russian oil growth until 2012

By Tanya Mosolova

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian oil output can grow for at least five years even if the industry doesn't get new tax breaks and despite delays at some major projects, the president of pipeline monopoly Transneft (TRNF_p.RTS) said on Wednesday.

Nikolai Tokarev, boss of the world's largest pipeline company, said Russian oil firms had submitted plans to Transneft which will see the country's production rising by around 1.2 million barrels per day by 2012.

"We can not say that oil output is stagnating or falling ... In 2012 we will have a total increase in output of 60 million tonnes (1.2 million pbd) compared to this year," Tokarev said in an interview at the Reuters Russia Investment Summit.

Oil production in Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, has declined by around one percent since the start of the year after reaching a post-Soviet peak of 9.87 million bpd in 2007.

Stagnant oil production -- which has been rising by between 2 and 11 percent over the past decade -- has been a major concern for the government which depends heavily on oil revenues.

The government still expects production to be at least flat this year and has offered a series of tax breaks to oil firms. But companies say a deeper tax cut is needed to sustain growth.

Tokarev said production could grow even without further tax cuts, but added that Russia should start thinking about capping production in a few years in order not to deplete its reserves too quickly.

"In the United States, they keep reserves for the future and fields which are ready to produce are being mothballed and are awaiting their time," said Tokarev.

"I believe the state of our finances and budget allow us to think about such a rational approach. There is no need to rush and deplete our resources too quickly," said Tokarev.

He said documents submitted by oil firms showed Russia's top oil producer Rosneft (ROSN.MM) would grow faster than other companies until 2012, adding 22.5 million tonnes to its current production despite a six-month delay to its giant Vankor project announced last week.

Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM), the oil arm of gas monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM), BP's (BP.L) Russian venture TNK-BP (TNBPI.RTS), and the country's second largest oil producer LUKOIL (LKOH.MM) would also expand production.

(Additional reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Michael Stott, Amie Ferris-Rotman, Katya Golubkova and Robin Paxton; Editing by Jason Neely)