INSTANT ANALYSIS: Saakashvili's future after S.Ossetia defeat

(Reuters) - Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili swept to power in the peaceful 2003 "Rose" revolution promising market reforms, a commitment to democracy and re-orienting his country away from Russia and towards the European mainstream.

But after failing to seize control of the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia he now accuses Moscow of trying to overthrow his government.

* Defeat in South Ossetia could mean that Georgia has lost the province for good, a bitter blow to Saakashvili who had promised to restore central control there and in Abkhazia, the other breakaway Georgian region.

* "Saakashvili promoted himself as the Georgian modernizer... He gave a clear direction to his country to join NATO, the EU and escape Russian influence and to try to increase economic growth. He was the modernizer but he will now also be the war-maker, to some extent" -- Thomas Gomart, the IFRI Institute, Paris.

* Moscow has made clear it no longer sees him as a reliable partner, a comment the United States saw as a coded warning that Saakashvili has burnt all his bridges with Moscow and that it now wants regime change in Tbilisi.

* Russia's swift response has been decried by the United States and some European states as disproportionate, but Moscow has called the West's bluff with the use of overwhelming military force against a former Soviet satellite that had turned its back on Russia to seek membership of NATO and the European Union.

* The extent of the physical damage to the country remains to be fully evaluated but with Russian bombs striking airports, homes, and oil installations, and with a form of naval blockade apparently being enforced, Georgians could be paying a heavy economic price for the conflict for years to come.

* Saakashvili's political currency has also been debased as his vaunted U.S. and European allies have failed to offer anything more than words of condemnation for Russia's response. Longer term, that could lead Georgians to question the wisdom of such stridently pro-Western policies.

* Saakashvili has portrayed himself as young modern leader, but this failed operation has further disenchanted some Europeans already wary of his temperament after he used of riot police to put down protests last November.

* "This war has pushed Georgia further away not just from Europe, but also complicates the NATO council in December," Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini told the daily La Stampa. "Italy maintains that we cannot create an anti-Russia coalition in Europe, and on this point we are close to (Russian Prime Minister Vladimir) Putin's position."

* The crushing setback over South Ossetia could fuel domestic opposition to Saakashvili's rule. Tens of thousands of people attended a protest rally in May challenging the results of a snap January presidential poll and spring legislative elections.

* But IFRI's Gomart says Saakashvili remains the dominant force in Georgian politics for now, although much weakened: "He is very clearly the leader, the main person in the political system. The opposition is very divided. There are plenty of small political parties...but I don't see someone of the same stature in the political landscape."

(Reporting by Jon Boyle; additional reporting by Stephen Brown in Rome; Editing by xx xxx;)