ANALYSIS-Georgians ask questions of leader after losses

By Margarita Antidze and Niko Mchedishvili

TBILISI, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Georgians are rallying behind the country in its conflict with Russia but voices of dissent are being raised against President Mikheil Saakashvili for taking Tbilisi into a war it could never win.

Saakashvili came to power in 2003 on a promise to reunite the country by reining in separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and steering Georgia towards membership of NATO.

The two regions threw off Georgian rule in wars in the early 1990s and declared independence. No state has recognised them, though Russia has given political and financial support.

But there is a growing sense in Tbilisi that Saakashvili, who sent in troops to retake the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali by force last week, gambled on his Western allies intervening to halt a Russian counter-offensive.

He lost heavily and as a result the country's bid for NATO membership also looks more forlorn than ever.

The political opposition, so vocal in their criticism of Saakashvili for a heavy-handed crackdown on post-election protests last year, has been reluctant to criticise the leadership during a time of war.

But some are now breaking ranks.

"Support for President Saakashvili is now a matter of principle for the majority in Georgia, as we face a military aggression from Russia," said David Usupashvili, leader of the opposition Republican Party.

"But when this nightmare and tragedy is over, many of these people will start...asking questions. People understand that Saakashvili made a mistake by not thinking about the consequences."



"WELL PLANNED TRAP"

Tens of thousands took to the streets of Tbilisi on Tuesday to denounce "Russian aggression" against the Caucasus country of 4.5 million people, a former Soviet vassal.

They cheered Saakashvili, but the president appeared exhausted, the pressure of the past week showing in his face.

Analysts say the man who ousted former Georgian leader Eduard Shevardnadze in the 2003 "Rose Revolution", promising reform and prosperity, is in danger of losing the confidence of those who put him there after a disastrous military campaign.

"It was his decision," said Vasily Chitadze, a Georgian refugee who fled the village of Nikozi on the de facto boundary with South Ossetia along with Georgian troops at the weekend.

"It would have been better not to start this war in the first place, but to seek a political solution," he told Reuters. "A lot of young people are dead now. Where's the sense in this?"

"It was a very well planned trap which we walked into," Archil Gegeshidze, an analyst at the Georgian Foundation for International and Security Studies, told Reuters.

But some experts say that with the opposition divided Saakashvili will remain the dominant force in Georgian politics, if in a weakened state, until a strong domestic rival emerges.

Gegeshidze said Georgian society was united for now against a common enemy -- Russia. "But (Saakashvili's) political future will depend on how hard the West will push Russia" to give up gains it made on the battlefield, he added.

Hundreds, perhaps thousands of refugees have fled Georgian villages inside South Ossetia and the terms of the peace appear likely to be dictated by Russia, which is firmly in control of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"Saakashvili should have refrained from using force," said Ketevan Dolidze, a 50-year-old teacher. "It won't be easy to get the Russians out of here. He should have thought about that." (Writing by Matt Robinson; editing by Jon Boyle)