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RPT-WEEKAHEAD-The view from Reuters EMEA news editors

Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:00am EDT

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(Repeating story from Friday without any changes)

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LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Following is the view from Reuters Europe, Middle East, Africa editors on the news that is likely to matter most for the week ahead starting Oct. 24.

-- EUROPEAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - data in Europe to offer clues to the strength of economic recovery -- THE RETURN OF INFLATION - euro zone sees inflation return, but monetary policy unlikely to change -- NORWAY RATE RISE - Norway's central bank looks set to become the first European country to raise rates from record lows -- TECHNOLOGY COMPANY EARNINGS - European tech companies to offer clues to strength of recovery, consumer trends -- BANK EARNINGS - European banks set to show investment banking doing well, traditional lending still in the doldrums -- IRAN OFFERS NEW PROPOSALS IN NUCLEAR ROW - Tehran looks to be buying time again after failing to accept U.N.-drafted plan on cutting its nuclear fuel stockpile -- EU CLIMATE FINANCING - EU leaders meet for final time before Copenhagen in December to try to find agreement on financing -- GERMAN COALITION - final coalition agreement due late on Friday or early on Saturday to determine fiscal policy

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

There are signs the pace of economic recovery is slowing or at least stabilising, so October consumer confidence data will be important. We have data from Germany (Monday), France and Italy (Tuesday) and Britain (Friday). German jobless figures on Thursday ties into this and has political overtones; in September the rate rose to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent in August. (andrew.torchia@reuters.com)

INFLATION

After four months of falling consumer prices, the euro zone will see inflation return and data is likely to show this trend beginning to emerge. The flash estimate of October inflation on Friday is forecast at minus 0.1 percent, up from minus 0.3 percent in September. French and Italian producer prices are due on the same day and preliminary inflation data from six German states and the overall German figure land on Wednesday. The revival of inflation will mostly be due to a "base effect" as the year-earlier oil price falls below the current price, so core inflation is set to stay modest and monetary policy is unlikely to change. For an analysis, click on [ID:nLK5936] (andrew.torchia@reuters.com)

CENTRAL BANKS

Norway's central bank looks set to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.50 percent on Wednesday, becoming the first European country to start to reverse record-low rates. For a poll on the likely outcome of the meeting, click on [ID:nLK376134].

Poland's central bank makes a rate decision on Thursday; all 27 analysts in a Reuters poll expect rates to stay unchanged at least until the end of the year, but with inflation stubbornly high, the bank may move to a neutral bias from its current easing bias. To see the Reuters poll, click on [ID:nL9473978]

Serbia's central bank is expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday. (andrew.torchia@reuters.com)

TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES REPORT

Several tech companies in Asia and Europe will report Q3 earnings and offer insight into the strength of the global economic recovery by showing consumer trends. Among the leading companies, Germany's SAP (SAPG.DE), the biggest maker of business management software, reports on Wednesday, Britain's ARM (ARM.L) on Tuesday and Dutch navigation device maker TomTom (TOM2.AS) on Thursday. (chris.wickham@reuters.com)

BANK EARNINGS

Several banks report Q3 results in Europe, led by Spain's second largest bank BBVA (BBVA.MC) on Tuesday, Spain's largest bank Santander (SAN.MC) and the Nordic's biggest bank by value Nordea (NDA.ST) on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Standard Chartered (STAN.L) on Thursday and Austria's Erste Group (ERST.VI) on Friday. Investors will be watching for signs that lending levels are improving.

(chris.wickham@reuters.com)

IRAN

Iran fails to accept a U.N.-drafted plan for it to cut a stockpile of nuclear fuel that the West fears could be used for weapons; instead it says it wants to buy nuclear fuel from abroad. By offering a rival proposal, Iran appears to be following a well-tested strategy of buying time to avert a threatened tightening of international sanctions. We will be looking for reaction from major countries negotiating with Iran to see whether China and Russia will support tougher sanctions.

IAEA inspectors due at hidden nuclear site in Qom on Sunday. What we are looking for here is extent of access/cooperation. The visit is likely to last several days. (samia.nakhoul@reuters.com)

CLIMATE

EU leaders need to hammer out a position on financing to help poorer countries cut their emissions before Copenhagen talks in December. Success or failure for the European Union hinges on whether they can heal a rift between the EU's poorer eastern states and the richer west. (janet.mcbride@reuters.com)

ECONOMIC DATA MONDAY, OCTOBER 26 0700 - German GfK consumer confidence, Nov 0700 - German import prices, Sept (26-29) TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27 0745 - French housing starts Sept 0750 - French consumer confidence Oct 0830 - Italy consumer confidence, Oct 0900 - Euro zone M3 and private loans, Sept 1100 - UK CBI distributive trades, Oct WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28 0830 - Italy business confidence Oct THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 0700 - German retail sales Sept (29-03) 0900 - Grman jobless Oct 0900 - Italy wages, Sept 0830 - UK consumer credit, mortgage lending, Sept 0830 - UK M4 money supply, Sept 1000 - Euro zone business climate Oct 1000 - Euro zone consumer inflation expectations, Oct FRIDAY, OCT 30 0001 - UK GfK consumer sentiment Oct 0745 - French PPI, Sept 0900 - Italy PPI, Oct 1000 - Eurozone flash inflation, Oct, fcast 0.1% y/y 1000 - Euro zone jobless, Sept 1000 - Italy prelim CPI, Oct 1030 - Swiss KOF industrial index TAKE-A-LOOK-Five world markets themes next week [MKT/THEMES] GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD [nLN362029] GLOBAL ECONOMY WEEKAHEAD [nN2397519] (editing by Elizabeth Piper)



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