UPDATE 4-Diageo cuts growth target as earnings rise 11 pct
(Adds chief executive comments, updates shares)
By David Jones
LONDON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Diageo Plc (DGE.L), the No.1 alcoholic drinks group, met forecasts on Thursday with an 11 percent rise in annual earnings but cut its profit-growth target due to an economic slowdown and rising input costs.
The London-based maker of Johnnie Walker whisky, Smirnoff vodka and Guinness beer reported underlying earnings per share of 60.6 pence ($1.11) for the year to June 30, compared with a consensus of 60.3p and a range of 59.5 to 61p in a Reuters poll.
But the group, which also makes Captain Morgan rum, Baileys liqueur and Gordon's gin, said weakening economies in Europe prompted it to cut its target for operating profit growth for the year to June 2009 to 7 to 9 percent from 9 percent.
Finance Director Nick Rose said the main economic concerns centred on Europe rather than North America, and he forecast accelerating cost increases this year from the rising price of grains, glass, packaging and energy.
"Our view is robust around North America. Attention is switching to Great Britain and the rest of Europe, which is looking quite challenging," Rose said on a conference call.
Rose said Diageo faces tough trading in Spain, Britain and Ireland, which make up one-fifth of group profits, with the Spanish scotch whisky market in decline and the British and Irish on-trade beer market in bars and pubs suffering.
Diageo shares rose 0.4 percent to 983-1/2 by 1420 GMT in a London stock market up 1.2 percent. The stock saw a rally in August linked to the recovering dollar, as nearly 40 percent of Diageo's profit comes from the United States.
Analyst Matthew Webb at brokers Cazenove said the results and the cut in growth target were expected but he said he considered Diageo shares overvalued as they trade at a 10 percent premium to French arch rival Pernod Ricard (PERP.PA).
Citi analyst Philip Morrisey says big defensive stocks like Diageo have been standout performers but this may be tested with 55 percent of its profits coming from the "problem housing market economies" of the U.S., UK, Spain and Ireland while there are signs of slowing growth in some emerging markets.
Diageo shares have outperformed the UK market and the alcoholic beverage sector in the recent turmoil, outpacing the FTSE 100 index .FTSE by 7 percent and the DJ Stoxx European food and beverage index .SX3P by 3 percent in 2008.
CHALLENGING GLOBAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
Chief Executive Paul Walsh warned the group faced slowing global growth and more challenging economic trends in its new financial year, but said its top brands were in robust health.
"Our brands have faced world wars, revolutions and more economic downturns than we'll ever see," Walsh told a results news conference.
He added that with the positive impact of exchange rates on its results and its share buyback programme he expected to deliver double-digit percentage earnings growth this year.
The group cut its share buyback programme to 750 million pounds in the current year from 1 billion pounds to reflect the near 600 million pounds it spent last year on acquisitions.
The weakness of the pound and recent strength of the dollar will mean the group will benefit from currency effects to the tune of 60 million pounds this year after a loss on translation of 5 million pounds in the year to June 2008.
Diageo's Rose said input costs such as grains and energy rose 90 million pounds, or 3 percent of its cost base in the reported year, and he expected a bigger increase of 150 million pounds, or 5 percent of its cost base, in the coming year.
The group raised its full-year dividend 5 percent to 34.35p.
Overall group sales rose 8 percent to 8.1 billion pounds and operating profit increased 9 percent to 2.3 billion pounds. (Editing by Karen Foster and Quentin Bryar)
