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FACTBOX: What will Angola's election mean?

Sun Sep 7, 2008 7:01am EDT

(Reuters) - Below are answers to some questions on Angola's parliamentary election, the first in 16 years, in which the ruling MPLA party appears to have extended its majority.

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WHAT RESULTS DO WE HAVE?

Provisional results, based on 50 percent of the vote, suggest that ruling MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) got more than 80 percent with just over 10 percent for the main opposition party UNITA (National Union for the Total Independence of Angola), from the civil war rebel movement.

It could take many days before full results emerge but it is clear that the MPLA will emerge overwhelmingly dominant.

HOW FAIR WAS THE VOTE?

There is no doubt that the ballot was plagued by massive organizational problems -- voting had to be extended for a second day because it had been so chaotic in many areas on Friday.

Opposition parties also complain that the whole election has been skewed against them from the campaign onwards with the state using its resources to back the MPLA, which has ruled since independence from Portugal in 1975.

UNITA wants results rejected from some areas -- such as the MPLA stronghold of Luanda.

These difficulties have certainly undermined Angolan hopes that the election would set a shining example of polls in Africa after flawed ballots in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

But the MPLA had always been expected to win a major victory.

African observers, including those who condemned Zimbabwe's election, have generally said the vote was clean despite the organizational chaos that often afflicts ballots on the continent.

The head of an EU observer mission has been much more critical, but the group is not expected to give clearer comment until Monday.

WHAT CAN OPPOSITION PARTIES DO?

UNITA and the other parties can complain and UNITA has said it will challenge the legality of the election in the Constitutional Court, but options are limited.

There is certainly anger among some Angolans at the growing disparities of wealth given the booming economy and the fact that most of them live on less than $2 a day, but there is no sign this will translate into major disturbances.

UNITA is no longer an armed force, as it was when it rejected the results of elections in 1992 and Angola plunged back into a civil war that lasted another decade.

WHAT WILL A BIG MPLA VICTORY MEAN?

The MPLA had been expected to at least retain its majority of 129 seats in the 220-member parliament, but winning more than two thirds would give it a free hand to be able to change the constitution in ways that could further entrench its power.

Parliament in itself does not have that much power. The president has the right to veto any new legislation that is approved by parliament. He is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and also appoints ministers and judges of the Supreme Court.

A big MPLA win would certainly clear the way for President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in power since 1979, to stand in next year's presidential election -- with little chance of being beaten.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR BUSINESS AND INVESTMENT?

The oil firms pumping almost two million barrels of crude per day -- Angola rivals Nigeria as the continent's top oil producer -- will be very happy to see continued stability under a government with which they have good relations.

New OPEC member Angola has become one of the world's fastest growing economies thanks to its oil production growth and only major instability would be likely to discourage significant interest in Angola from frontier investors.

Extending the MPLA's dominance should give it a freer hand to enact the liberalizing economic reforms investors seek to create more opportunities and to further fuel growth.

Gross domestic product grew more than 24 percent in 2007, compared to an average 5.7 percent in Africa. Growth is forecast to reach 16.5 percent this year and to remain in double digits in 2009.

The government also hopes to win a credit rating from a major agency -- it has set its sights on a rating of at least B+ -- and its chances of doing so could be improved if there is not too much trouble in the aftermath of the vote.



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