Iran poll to offer no sure verdict on Ahmadinejad

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's parliamentary polls on Friday may reinforce President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chances of winning a second term next year, but even if his hardline supporters do badly, it is too early to write him off.

After a week of lackluster campaigning, 44 million eligible voters can choose from two conservative factions and one reformist group to represent them in the 290-seat assembly.

The government is looking for a high turnout to prove to Iran's U.S. and other "enemies" that the system is popular.

Many Iranians are upset over roaring inflation and high unemployment, but that may not translate into parliamentary gains for Ahmadinejad's reformist critics partly because the unelected Guardian Council disqualified many from standing.

"There is discontent with foreign policy and inflation, but the nuclear issue has so far played to the government's benefit," said an Iranian political analyst who asked not to be named. "Another element in the government's favor is that many of its critics are likely to abstain from voting."

Ahmadinejad also has conservative rivals jockeying for position -- and for the backing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- ahead of the 2009 presidential election.

Khamenei's support for Ahmadinejad was widely viewed as the key to his surprise victory in 2005.

He has recently lavished public praise on the 51-year-old president for his uncompromising handling of Iran's nuclear dispute with the West, although even some conservatives have questioned the wisdom of tough tactics that prompted the U.N. Security Council to impose a third set of sanctions this month.

LAST WORD

The Supreme Leader, not parliament or the president, has the final say on issues such as nuclear, oil and foreign policy.

While he cultivates the image of an arbiter above the political fray, Khamenei has helped conservatives regain much of the ground they lost during the two presidential terms of Mohammad Khatami, a moderate cleric who favors more social and political freedoms at home and dialogue with the outside world.

Despite the limitations of Friday's vote, it will be scrutinized for signs of whether Ahmadinejad's popularity is fading or whether the electorate feels he is fulfilling his promises of putting Iran's oil wealth "on the people's tables".

The most pro-government group, the conservative United Front, contains critics as well as backers of Ahmadinejad, but all pride themselves as "principlists" on their loyalty to the ideals of the Islamic revolution. They hold about 156 seats now.

The Inclusive Coalition is backed by two men who lost to Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential race -- Ali Larijani, who quit as chief nuclear negotiator last year citing differences with the president, and Tehran mayor Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf.

The Coalition of Reformist Groups wants to expand its rump of about 40 seats in the outgoing assembly, a far cry from the sweeping reformist majorities of the Khatami era. But with many candidates barred, it is contesting only a third of the seats.

There are no disciplined political parties in Iran, making for a fluid system of shifting allegiances.

With inflation officially running at 19.2 percent and unemployment at 10.7 percent, Ahmadinejad's government might fear punishment by voters. But the populist leader has wooed them by touring the provinces and dispensing handouts.

His chances of staying president next year are not linked only to voter appeal in Iran's complex power system. "What matters is who opposes him and who supports him in the various networks and forces of the regime," said a Western diplomat.

(Editing by Samia Nakhoul)