Change in Cuba only after Castro dies: U.S. official

MIAMI (Reuters) - The United States will have to wait until Cuban leader Fidel Castro dies to see if a better future is in store for his communist-ruled Caribbean island, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said on Saturday.

He also acknowledged that President George W. Bush may leave office without seeing any of the changes his administration has pushed for in Cuba.

"He (Castro) has tilted Cuba toward the failed model that exists today, and we'll have to wait and see if the future is better when he is no longer around," Gutierrez told Reuters in an interview.

His comments appeared to mark a dramatic shift from just a few months ago, when Gutierrez said Cuba was at a "critical juncture" in its history and poised for change.

Gutierrez, a Cuban-American, co-chairs a commission created by Bush to press for a democratic transition in Cuba. He was in Miami, the heartland of Cuban exile opposition to Castro, to address a meeting of Latin American chambers of commerce and industry.

He spoke when asked about a top Cuban official's claim that Castro was now fully on the mend after an intestinal ailment that put his life at risk last year.

Cuban National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon told CNN on Friday that Castro, 80, who handed over power temporarily to his brother Raul Castro on July 31 after emergency surgery, had put the "worst behind him."

Gutierrez told Reuters "no one really knows" about Castro's health, apart perhaps from those in his inner circle.

But he said no one should look for changes in U.S. policy toward Cuba, which Washington has long sought to isolate through an economic embargo, without a major shake-up in Cuban government policies.

He did not elaborate on what specific changes could prompt a lifting of the embargo, which has been in place for more than four decades. He stressed that Washington was looking for something more than "changes around the edges," however.

"Change needs to happen in Cuba," Gutierrez said. "We are firm on that ... change needs to happen on the island."

Acknowledging that Bush could leave office in January 2009 with Cuba is still "stuck in the 20th century," as he sees it, Gutierrez said it would be "a shame" for everyone.

"The people who will continue to suffer are the people in Cuba," he added. "They lack everything, they will continue to lack everything because of failed policies."