FACTBOX: Bush adds new track to U.N. climate bid
(Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush introduced plans for a global warming conference in September that would bring together the world's biggest polluters to seek a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Following is a timetable, and some hurdles, for a global deal likely to start up on January 1, 2013, after the first period of the United Nation's Kyoto Protocol runs out.
Under Kyoto, 35 industrialized nations have agreed to cap their greenhouse gas emissions, cutting by 5 percent on average below 1990 levels by 2008-2012.
TIME RUNNING SHORT
Time is starting to run short to ensure a smooth transition to a new set of rules beyond 2012 because governments widely reckon it will take about two years to negotiate any new pact and a further two for ratification.
It took two years from 1995-97 to negotiate Kyoto and eight more to ratify before the deal entered into force in 2005. Carbon markets and investors, for instance in new factories or power plants, want to know new rules as early as possible.
2007
May 31 - Bush said he wanted 15 top emitters of greenhouse gases -- which are led by the United States, China, Russia and India -- to "work together to develop a long-term global goal to reduce greenhouse gasses."
Bush's current U.S. plan lasting until 2012 brakes the rise of U.S. emissions without mandating Kyoto-style cuts and he has favored voluntary international deals with rich nations providing cleaner technologies to poorer nations. Some nations fear Bush's plan will rival rather than reinforce U.N. efforts.
June 6-8 - Leaders of the group of eight leading industrialized nations will meet in Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been pushing for a more ambitious deal and says the world needs to cut emissions by 50 percent in 2050 below 1990 levels.
TWO CAMPS
Two groups need to merge to pave the way to any world deal:
- The 35 Kyoto countries.
- And about 200 countries are separately engaged in a U.N.-sponsored dialogue about "long-term cooperative action to address climate change". The group includes Kyoto nations, developing countries and the United States and Australia which oppose Kyoto as too costly and unfair.
August 27-31 - Senior government officials meet in Vienna for talks about Kyoto and a new round of the broader dialogue.
September 24 - The United Nations plans a "high level" meeting about climate change, provisionally on September 24 in New York.
December 3-14 - Environment ministers from around the world meet in Bali, Indonesia. It will be a first meeting at which formal U.N. talks on a new post-Kyoto deal could be launched. Failing that, they might agree to extend the U.N. dialogue. White House officials said on Thursday that Bush's speech had effectively kicked off the Bali talks.
2008
Bush wants top emitters to agree cuts by the end of 2008.
December - World environment ministers meet again in Poland.
2009
January 20 - Bush leaves office
December - Environment Ministers meet in Denmark. Many nations hope a launch of negotiations in Bali in 2007 would mean a U.N. deal could be signed at the Copenhagen talks.
2012
December 31 - First period of Kyoto runs out.
