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Worst may not be over at Aetna -- analysts

Wed Jun 3, 2009 10:16am EDT

Stocks

   

* Some see another forecast reduction

Stocks  |  Global Markets

* Shares fall 8 percent

NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) - Aetna Inc (AET.N) may have more bad news yet to come, analysts said on Wednesday, a day after the No. 3 U.S. health insurer modestly cut its full-year profit forecast.

After the market closed on Tuesday, Aetna reduced its operating earnings per share forecast to a range of $3.55 to $3.70 from its prior forecast of $3.85 to $3.95. That amounts to a cut of about 7 percent, taking the midpoints of each range.

Aetna, whose shares fell more than 8 percent on Wednesday, stood out in 2008 as the lone major health insurer not to significantly cut its full year forecast, but analysts said the issues that afflicted rivals last year may be coming to haunt Aetna this year.

Wachovia analyst Matt Perry said the average earnings per share reduction last year in the sector was 34 percent, and most companies cut their forecasts more than once.

"We are concerned that industry-wide margin pressure that hit most of the sector in 2008, has caught up with Aetna in 2009," Perry said in a research note, in which he cut his rating on Aetna stock to "market perform."

Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Borsch maintained his "sell" rating on Aetna shares, saying in a research note that he sees potential downside risk as the year progresses.

"We believe underwriting pressures from last year are still catching up with Aetna, while the book for 2009 is underpriced," Borsch said.

Chief Financial Officer Joseph Zubretsky, speaking at a Citi investor conference, said company management "has a high degree of confidence" in the new outlook.

Aetna shares fell $2.27 to $25.00 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. They have slumped 14 percent in 2009, compared to a 4 percent rise for the S&P Managed Health Care index .GSPHMO. (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Derek Caney)



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