Democrats, Republicans see ways to win White House

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A tanking U.S. economy, an unpopular war, record gasoline prices, an unpopular Republican president -- it all adds up to a victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November, right?

Or, from Republican John McCain's standpoint, are Americans ready to turn over the White House to an untested, first-term senator in a time of war and facing big challenges at home and abroad?

Political analysts believe Democrats have their best chance in years to take the White House from Republicans, saying a whole host of factors favor Obama over McCain.

"It's their election to lose," said Linda Fowler, a political science professor at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire.

But Republicans think they have the stronger candidate in the war hero McCain and that with some luck and by attracting independent voters, they might just be able to beat the odds and put him in the White House.

"He wins by making a positive, solution-oriented appeal to the country that appeals particularly to independents as well as Republicans," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Obama, who would be America's first black president, enters the general election battle as the favorite among voters who have been evenly divided in the last two presidential elections.

Polls gave him an edge over McCain before he clinched the Democratic presidential nomination on Tuesday, and McCain aides believe he will get a bounce from his victory.

But Obama has some weak areas that Republicans will try to exploit. Clinton's defeat of Obama in such states as Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia showed that Obama has some work to do to convince white, working-class voters they should vote for him.

His campaign remark that small-town Americans are "bitter" and "cling" to guns and religion, as well as his association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, known for racially charged sermons, may count against him, although Obama moved to rectify that liability by resigning from Wright's church.

"The bottom line is that Obama has the wind at his back," said Democratic strategist Liz Chadderdon. "But he must begin to reflect the values of the general consensus of America. He still has to connect. He can't have any more bitter comments, he can't have any more elitist comments."

Democrats believe Obama wins by taking the states won by Democratic candidate John Kerry in 2004 and seizing some of the battleground states that are typically in play, like Ohio or Florida, that Democrats did not win four years ago.

Many Republicans are queasy about the prospect of losing more congressional seats -- after losing control of the U.S. Congress in 2006 -- because in three special elections to fill Republican seats this year, the Democrat has won.

Political experts believe Republicans ended up with the best candidate possible because McCain has a more centrist record and has shown an ability to reach across the aisle to work with Democrats.

But success for McCain, a backer of current U.S. strategy in Iraq, could depend on factors out of his control -- whether the Iraq war is off the front pages, and whether Americans improve their view of President George W. Bush, whose approval rating is around 30 percent.

To win in November, "McCain is going to need a great deal of luck coming from many different directions," said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.

"He needs Iraq to stay quiet, the economy to improve, and Bush to at least get over 40 percent in the public polls," said Sabato. "That's tough."

Republican strategist Scott Reed said McCain, by talking up issues important to independents like global warming, is off to a good start and that Republican congressional candidates should pay attention to him.

"Republicans can and will win in November by grabbing on to McCain and his reform agenda. Anything short of a bold, forward-looking agenda is going to come up short, because the political environment stinks," he said.

(Editing by David Wiessler)

(To read more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)