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TREASURIES-Bonds gain from safety bid in ongoing economic fear

Thu Dec 4, 2008 9:29am EST

* Safety buying again props up longer-dated Treasuries

Bonds  |  Funds News  |  ETFs News

* European central banks aggressively cut interest rates

* Weekly jobless claims add to bullish tone in bonds

* For the latest market news, please click on FINEWS

By Chris Reese

NEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rose on Thursday, with fears of a deep global recession continuing to spur safe-haven buying after European central banks cut rates more aggressively than had been expected.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by a record 75 basis points on Thursday to 2.50 percent, while the Bank of England chopped 100 basis points to take its interest rates to the lowest since 1951. Sweden also aggressively cut rates. For details see [ID:nHKG108699].

The moves helped push down U.S. Treasury debt yields, which move inversely to prices, with benchmark yields overnight dipping to the lowest in over 50 years.

"The European Central Bank and Bank of England moves were more aggressive than thought," said Kevin Flanagan, fixed income strategist for global wealth management with Morgan Stanley in Purchase, New York, adding "this is going to be a deep recession and we continue to see moves from global central banks."

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR were trading 7/32 higher in price for a yield of 2.63 percent against 2.66 percent late on Wednesday. Benchmark yields reached to as low as 2.54 percent overnight, the lowest in over five decades.

Two-year Treasury notes US2YT=RR were trading unchanged in price for a yield of 0.89 percent.

Data on the U.S. labor market added to the bullish tone in Treasuries on Thursday, analysts noted, with the number of weekly jobless claims, while below forecasts, remaining at elevated levels.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 509,000 in the week ended Nov. 29 compared with an upwardly revised 530,000 the previous week. However the four-week moving average of new jobless claims rose to 524,500 from 518,250 the week before, the highest since the week of Dec. 18, 1982.

"You've got to look at continuing and the four-week moving average, and those have both gone up -- we were at a high level to begin with," said Robert MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Corp in Boston.

"The consensus is looking for a pretty deep recession ... the bar has been lowered as far as economic activity, and this is still consistent with a recession and it's going to be a while," he said.

Investors were on the watch for more potentially dismal jobs data on Friday with the release of November non-farm payrolls.

The median of forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters is for non-farm payrolls to have contracted by 340,000 jobs last month after shrinking by 240,000 jobs in October.

Five-year Treasury notes US5YT=RR were trading 3/32 higher in price for a yield of 1.59 percent from 1.61 percent late on Wednesday, while the 30-year bond US30YT=RR was 16/32 higher for a yield of 3.13 percent from 3.16 percent. (Additional reporting by John Parry and Herb Lash; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



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