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UPDATE 4-Safeway to cut costs, prices in 2009

Thu Dec 4, 2008 4:07pm EST

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* Expects '09 EPS $2.34-$2.44 vs Street view $2.37

Stocks  |  Global Markets

* Keeps 2008 EPS view $2.25-$2.35 unchanged

* Says started real estate development business

* Shares slip after rising as much as 5 pct (Adds CEO and CFO comments, updates stock activity)

By Jessica Wohl

CHICAGO, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Safeway Inc (SWY.N) said profit next year may top analysts' expectations as it cuts prices to attract cost-conscious shoppers to its supermarkets and kept its 2008 forecast unchanged.

Safeway shares fell after rising earlier in the day as analysts at a meeting with Safeway's top executives questioned whether its goals may be too lofty as U.S. consumers continue to cut back on their spending during the recession.

The company also said it got into the real estate development business over the past three or four months, with a focus on urban and suburban shopping center development.

Safeway expects to earn $2.34 to $2.44 per share in fiscal 2009. Analysts, on average, expected Safeway to earn $2.37 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Safeway also said it would make an aggressive effort to cut costs and forecast cash capital expenditures of about $1.2 billion in 2009, down from $1.6 billion in 2008.

Safeway was making its stores more upscale when the U.S. recession struck. Now, as consumers trim spending in response to a weak economy, rising job losses and tighter credit, the company has cut prices on high-demand products such as milk. Also, while it is still remodeling stores, in many cases it is doing less-extensive work rather than complete overhauls.

Chairman and Chief Executive Steve Burd said Safeway chose to work less on lowering prices in 2008 to keep its earnings guidance intact in the current economic environment. Now it is planning to cut more prices heading into 2009.

The company still expects to earn $2.25 to $2.35 this year. Analysts' average forecast is $2.24.

REAL ESTATE PLANS

While Safeway's main business is its grocery chains such as Safeway, Vons and Dominick's, it branched out a few years ago with the Blackhawk gift card distribution network. The soft economy is hitting overall retail sales and sales of gift cards, but Burd said the impact on Blackhawk should not be all that noticeable.

Now, Safeway is getting into real estate development, where Burd said opportunities are "pretty extraordinary." Safeway already has some 36 projects underway with very little capital investment and could take on a partner on some plans, he said.

The company expects identical store sales growth of 2 percent to 3 percent in fiscal 2009, excluding fuel sales, and still expects such sales to rise 1 percent to 2 percent in 2008. These sales are up 1 percent so far in the fourth quarter.

Safeway originally expected identical store sales to rise 3 percent to 3.2 percent this year. It cut that forecast in April and then again in July as it felt the impact of the weak economy and consumers turning to lower priced food and generic drugs. While items such as private label products are a drag on revenue, they are more profitable for the grocer.

Safeway also expects to nearly double free cash flow in 2009, bringing it up to $1 billion to $1.2 billion.

Burd said Safeway's balance sheet is in "absolutely terrific shape." The company expects to end the year with $5.4 billion in debt, down from $5.7 billion in 2007.

Safeway plans to pay down $700 million to $900 million in debt in 2009, Chief Financial Officer Robert Edwards said during the meeting. He also said Safeway has excellent access to commercial paper markets.

Shares of Safeway, which operates 1,738 stores in the United States and Canada, were down 38 cents at $21.43 after rising to $22.91. The shares fell more than 32 percent from the beginning of the year through Wednesday, while shares of larger rival Kroger Co (KR.N) rose 2.8 percent over the same period. (Additional reporting by Lisa Baertlein, editing by Dave Zimmerman, Andre Grenon and Bernard Orr)



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