Bush troop cut hints not seen as sign of Iraq shift

SYDNEY (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's hints of a U.S. troop cut in Iraq signal less a shift in policy and more an effort to put the best possible light on the reality that the "surge" needs to end by mid-2008, analysts said.

Bush's unannounced visit this week to a desert air base in Iraq lent drama to his remark that fewer troops may be required if security improves further in Iraq, a comment he repeated in Sydney at an Asia-Pacific economic summit.

Bush almost never discusses troop cuts in public and routinely bats away reporters' questions about adjustments in force levels by saying he consults with his commanders on the ground about such decisions.

But analysts said his newfound willingness to talk about the possibility was part of a carefully planned strategy for gaining the upper hand in the political showdown with Democrats over the unpopular war.

"I think a fair amount of what Bush said was about political spin, not substance," said Anthony Cordesman, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Bush has highlighted progress in curbing violence and reconciling Iraq's warring factions, although some reports, including one from a congressional agency this week, question how much progress has been made.

The U.S. Congress must decide in coming weeks whether to approve more funding for the war and Democratic leaders are seizing on the reports as proof that Washington should start bringing troops home. A small but growing number of Republicans also have expressed doubts about the war.

Bush cited recent security gains and said if they continued, a troop drawdown might be possible.

But Cordesman pointed out that a decline in the 160,000 U.S. force presence in Iraq has long been expected.

TRYING NOT TO BE OVEREXTENDED

Pentagon officials have for months acknowledged that the 30,000 troop increase Bush ordered for Iraq at the start of this year faced a time limit because of rotation schedules.

The fear is that extending the buildup too long would risk overstretching the military -- something that U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has vowed to avoid.

Extra units deployed for the so-called surge need to be rotated out of Iraq between next April and August to keep a promise that their tours would not last more than 15 months.

Stephen Wayne, professor of government at Georgetown University, said Bush has given no indication he is about to give any ground to his critics.

"The fact of the matter is, the president has not changed his policy one iota since he initiated the military involvement in Iraq in March 2003," Wayne said. "He has obviously convinced himself that what he is doing is right."

Bush's trip to Iraq's western Anbar province came just a week before the top U.S. commander in Iraq, David Petraeus, and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker deliver their eagerly awaited testimony to Congress on Monday and Tuesday.

The White House then will submit its own assessment by September 15 that is expected to be the basis for Bush's decisions on the way forward in Iraq. The president also is expected to make a public address on the strategy implications of the Petraeus-Crocker recommendations.

In Sydney, he emphasized that no final decision had been made on troop levels and he would not follow "artificial timetables."

His remarks overseas followed a pair of speeches in August to veterans' gatherings in which Bush warned of consequences for the Middle East if the United States were to pull out of Iraq and insisted it was in U.S. interests to help the country build a stable democracy.

Democrats are bent on trying to bring about an immediate withdrawal from Iraq but have had no success so far in forcing Bush's hand.