Consumer gloom suggests Obama victory: survey
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, should benefit from consumers' dissatisfaction with the weak national economy, according to Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
A close correlation exists between the cycles in the Index of Consumer Sentiment and presidential elections, the survey group said.
Over the past half century, nearly all presidential elections occurred in years in which the Sentiment Index was near its cyclical peak.
The two exceptions were 1980 and 1992, when confidence was near cyclical lows, and the incumbents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush lost their re-election bids.
The current election marks only the third time in more than 50 years that confidence is near its cyclical low point during an election year, the survey group said.
However, the correlation is harder to make this year because Sen. John McCain represents the incumbent Republican party but not the sitting president, the survey group said.
Two exceptions to the correlation between an economic cycle and electoral success occurred in 2000, when confidence was high but George W. Bush defeated then-Vice President Al Gore, and in 1976 when Jimmy Carter beat President Gerald Ford, the survey group said.
(Reporting by Ellen Freilich; Editing by Tom Hals)
