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WRAPUP 2-Chile's economy holds strong, prices rise

Tue Jun 5, 2007 1:47pm EDT

(Adds finance minister comment in paragraphs 13-14)

By Pav Jordan

SANTIAGO, June 5 (Reuters) - Chile's economy and inflation have both grown faster than expected in recent months, likely putting pressure on the central bank to review monetary policy at its next meeting on June 14.

Chile's economic activity index, the IMACEC, rose 6.6 percent in April compared with a year earlier, maintaining this year's strong growth after 6.6 percent growth in March, the central bank said on Tuesday.

Also on Tuesday, the National Statistics Institute said the consumer price index rose 0.6 percent in May, equal to the 0.6 percent in April, mostly amid rising transport and food costs.

The increase was greater than the median forecast of a rise of 0.4 percent expected by 10 economists polled by Reuters.

"This is going to put pressure on the central bank," said Eduardo Orpis, an economist with Finanzas Today in Santiago.

"It looks to me like the economic recovery continues to be consolidated."

Chile's economy has rebounded this year after only 4.0 percent growth for 2006.

In the first quarter of this year, the economy grew 5.8 percent, its strongest rate since the second quarter of 2005.

The April IMACEC result was above the 6.1 percent median forecast of 10 analysts polled by Reuters.

The IMACEC, a monthly gauge, measures more than 90 percent of the components comprising Chile's gross domestic product. GDP figures are issued quarterly.

In terms of inflation, May figures show consumer prices are honing in on central bank targets, and could lead to a rate hike in coming months.

Inflation for the 12 months to May was 2.9 percent, compared with the 2.5 percent in April, and approaching the central bank's 3.0 percent target rate.

Chile Finance Minister Andres Velasco said after the data was published that inflation was under control because it was still under the central bank target.

"Its exactly in the range it is meant to be in," Velasco said.

Chile's full-year inflation last year was 2.6 percent. The bank has projected inflation for 2007 at 2.8 percent, up from a prior estimate of 2.3 percent.

The central bank has held its target overnight lending rate at 5.00 percent for the past four months, and while it is seen doing so for a fifth month at its meeting next week, pressure is building for a new hike.

"We expect the central bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.0 percent on June 14, but the language in the communique that follows the meeting should be unequivocally rate hawkish in order to prepare the market for higher rates ahead," said Alberto Ramos, senior economist for Latin America at Goldman Sachs.



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