Democrats look for silver lining in long race

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The prolonged White House struggle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has some Democrats worried about getting a late start on the November race but others see a silver lining if the fight ends amicably.

Republicans have settled on Arizona Sen. John McCain as their candidate in November but after Clinton's big wins in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday, Democrats appear likely to continue their presidential race until the end of the primary schedule in June, if not the August convention.

A lengthy nominating battle will not hurt and could help if it ends before the convention with a unified party, Democrats say. But they worry the winner could emerge from the convention wounded, financially broke and leading a splintered party -- with barely two months to concentrate on the general election.

"The one thing we know is that we have no idea what is going to happen. I don't think anyone thought we would be here," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN. "We don't know if a longer primary race is good or bad -- it depends on how it ends up."

For now, Democrats see plenty of positive signs -- Democratic voter turnout is up, party fund raising has skyrocketed and the race between Obama and Clinton has attracted new voters and high interest.

"The upside of the debate has been very positive for the Democrats and whatever minor downside there may be will be wiped away by the enthusiasm for our candidate when he or she is chosen," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, who has remained neutral in the race.

Obama, an Illinois senator, and Clinton, a New York senator, have said the longer primary battle is not necessarily a problem in the general election.

"One of the benefits of a long contest is we're going to come through it very organized in most states in the country. That is really going to benefit us," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager.

KERRY TACTICS RECALLED

Some Democrats point to Sen. John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign as a cautionary tale. The Republicans used the lull between Kerry clinching the nomination in March to when he chose John Edwards as his vice presidential candidate in July to define him in negative terms.

"I have no problem with a longer primary race where my candidate is out making headlines every day, meeting people and building support," said Democratic consultant Erik Smith, an aide to Richard Gephardt in his 2004 presidential bid who is not working for either candidate.

Republicans, however, cannot hide their glee at the possibility the sometimes bitter duel between Obama and Clinton will turn even more negative as they head toward the next big showdown in Pennsylvania on April 22.

"It's all good news for Republicans," said consultant Rich Galen, an adviser to former Sen. Fred Thompson's losing presidential campaign. "John McCain doesn't have to get in the way of them lobbing mortar shells at each other -- he just has to take notes."

Republican consultant Jim Dyke, an adviser to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's unsuccessful campaign, said a longer Democratic battle would not help McCain that much.

"Once you get a nominee, all of this stuff is usually forgotten," Dyke said.

Even a convention battle to settle on a nominee could pay off for Democrats.

"How many people would watch that acceptance speech after a brokered convention?" Dyke said. "The audience would be through the roof."

He noted Obama's record $55 million raised in February, however, and said: "If I'm Obama, would I rather take that $55 million and put it to use against John McCain instead of against Hillary Clinton? That's a no-brainer."

The Democratic race still has at least 12 contests to go until Puerto Rico concludes the voting in early June. That's plenty of time for more twists and turns.

"I can see a way that this could end poorly but I'm not feeling that now," said Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. "There is still an opportunity in the next six to eight weeks for one to emerge as the more clear front-runner."

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro; Editing by Bill Trott)

(For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)