Chile billionaire favored in '09 presidential race

By Rodrigo Martinez

SANTIAGO (Reuters) - Chilean billionaire and former center-right presidential candidate Sebastian Pinera would win an election if it were held now, leading pollster CEP said on Thursday, showing a potential shift toward the right.

Approval ratings are down for President Michelle Bachelet, Chile's first woman president and part of the center-left Concertacion coalition that has governed the country since a 17-year dictatorship ended in 1990, and the poll found Pinera of the opposition Renovacion Nacional party was leading voter preferences by far for the December 2009 election.

The poll said conservative Pinera would win 32 percent of the vote if an election were held now, followed by former President Ricardo Lagos, Chile's most popular president of modern times, who was projected garnering 17 percent of voter preference.

The election is still more than a year away, but it is a first indication from a reputable pollster about which way voters are leaning.

The survey by the CEP, or Center for Public Studies, said Joaquin Lavin, who also ran for president in the first round of elections in December 2005, was a distant fourth favorite of a list of six top candidates, with 9 percent support if an election were held this weekend.

The CEP poll interviewed 1,505 people between June 7-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Chile has been governed for more than 17 years by a coalition formed by left and center parties to oust former dictator Augusto Pinochet in a plebiscite and subsequent election in the late 1990s.

When Lagos handed the presidential sash over to Bachelet in 2006, he left office with high citizen approval, but his successor has not fared as well.

Her coalition, which defeated Pinera when she was elected, is criticized for losing touch with society in general, and specifically for not bringing the benefits of an economic boom backed by high copper prices to the people.

The government has also come under fire as inflation hits a 17-year high and the economy slows after years of booming growth.

Under Chile's electoral system a candidate needs to win 50 percent of the vote plus one to win in a first round, otherwise leading candidates must face off again in a subsequent round.

The CEP poll said that if Pinera were to run against Lagos today, he would win the presidency in a second round with 45 percent of the vote.

Neither Pinera nor Lagos are official candidates for the left or the right coalition blocs for the 2009 elections, although Pinera has indicated his intention to run on the conservative ticket.

(Additional reporting by Bianca Frigiani, writing by Pav Jordan; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)