• Most Popular
  • Most Shared

FOREX-Dollar extends gains post jobs data, Fed awaited

Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:51pm EDT

* Dollar holds most gains vs euro, currency basket

Currencies  |  Japan

* Greenback supported after strong payrolls

* Analysts see consolidation ahead of Fed meeting (Adds comments, updates prices; changes byline)

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - The dollar gained for a third straight day against a basket of currencies on Monday as investors continued to trade on the strong U.S. jobs numbers from Friday while awaiting the Federal Reserve's statement after its policy meeting later this week.

Analysts said extending the dollar's latest gains may hinge on the actions and words of the Fed, which will end a two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Friday's jobs data showed a smaller-than-expected fall in July U.S. payrolls, suggesting that employment may be turning the corner after months of extreme weakness.

Investors were waiting to see if the dollar's latest move was a sign of a breakdown of the recent correlation between the U.S. currency and risk demand -- in which economic data suggesting an improving global economy would batter a dollar trading off an ensuing rise in risk appetite.

"After the positive non-farm payroll data last week, the dollar gained across the board," said Dan Cook, a senior market analyst at IG Markets Inc., in Chicago. "I will definitely be watching this week to see if this is a continuing trend.

"If it looks as though the U.S. economy may recover faster than the other major economies, we may reach a point where dollar-based assets are more attractive," he added.

In afternoon trading in New York, the dollar was 0.4 percent higher at 79.305 .DXY against a basket of currencies.

The euro EUR= was 0.5 percent lower at $1.4119 after brushing off a surprisingly strong reading of euro-zone sentiment on Monday. The Sentix index produced a -17 reading for August, improving from -31.30 last month.

Against the yen, the dollar inched down 0.5 percent to 97.010 yen JPY= after rallying on Friday as high as 97.79 yen on EBS, its strongest level in nearly eight weeks.

Some analysts said a post-payrolls rise in Treasury yields helped to support the dollar as it increased the appeal of U.S. debt for some investors, including those from overseas.

Sterling fell below $1.65 for the first time in a week, extending losses that were triggered last week by the Bank of England's surprise expansion of its quantitative easing program. The pound fell as low as $1.6432 GBP=, according to Reuters data. Declines accelerated after stop-losses were hit below $1.66, traders said. [ID:nLA344809].

Analysts said some of Monday's trading was based on technical levels.

"The dollar index is coming off a deeply oversold condition and bounced off the bottom of the Bollinger Bands," said Andrew Bekoff, chief investment strategist at Family Office Group in New York. "We have seen that rally take us back to the 20-day moving average at 78.79."

FED AWAITED

Analysts said that whether the dollar extends its latest gains may hinge on the actions of the Fed.

The central bank is seen holding the fed funds rate at the zero-0.25 percent level, and some analysts say it may try to discourage speculation of a near-term rate rise after the payrolls data boosted expectations of possible monetary tightening [ID:nN07416548].

Markets are currently fully pricing a 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of January FEDWATCH.

The Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on Tuesday, while Norway's central bank will end a policy meeting on Wednesday. (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari in New York; Editing by Leslie Adler)



More from Reuters

Photo

U.S. health bill nears crucial Senate test vote

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With 60 votes in hand, Senate Democrats cruised on Sunday toward an expected victory on the first of three crucial test votes that will put a broad healthcare overhaul on the path to passage by Christmas. | Video

A woman shops at a Sam's Club store, a division of Wal-Mart Stores, in Bentonville, Arkansas June 4, 2009. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi

The food-stamp economy

On the last day of every month, shoppers at Walmart load their carts with food and household items and wait for the midnight hour. Is this the new normal in America?  Full Article 

Two men shake hands in a file photo.    REUTERS/File

Let's make a deal

The battered M&A sector will make a tepid recovery in the coming year and three hot sectors will lead the way, according to a Thomson Reuters analysis.  Full Article