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FOREX-U.S. dollar falls as investors wait new driver

Wed Mar 11, 2009 1:38pm EDT

* Dollar falls as investors see recent gains overdone

Currencies  |  Global Markets  |  China  |  France

* China exports slump, reminder of global uncertainty

* Some analysts see further legs in euro strength (Adds quotes, updates prices)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Wednesday as investors expressed caution that recent gains had gone too far, too fast given there has been no new fundamental news to prompt demand for the U.S. currency.

The dollar was also hurt by a Chinese trade report that cast doubts on China's ability to finance the U.S. current account deficit, which in the long run could weigh on the dollar [ID:nPEK194920].

Gains in emerging market units such as the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty versus the dollar also weighed on the U.S. currency, analysts said.

"Unless we see some improvement in economic indicators we are just going to bounce around in a wait-and-see mode," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange trading at ING Capital Markets in New York. "With equity markets bouncing we could easily trend for a while."

In mid afternoon New York trading, the euro rose 0.7 percent to $1.2764 EUR=, after touching a two-week high of $1.2821 on Tuesday, according to Reuters data. The dollar fell 1 percent against the yen to 97.70 yen JPY=.

The euro has lost 8.8 percent against the dollar in 2009, while the dollar has gained 7.7 percent against the yen. Investors, however, are now waiting for new impetus from either corporate news or economic data.

John Crooks, president of research firm Black Swan Capital in Florida, said he thinks the euro bounce could have some legs. Apart from any gains in stock prices, he said the euro was being supported by two other factors: "bond prices under pressure and oil back in the mid-40s despite no real sign that global demand has picked up."

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell 0.4 percent to 1.1564 francs CHF=, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose against the greenback to US$0.6480 AUD= and US$0.5055 NZD=, respectively.

Foreign exchange investors received a timely reminder of the sickly state of global economic growth after data earlier in the global session showed a slump in China's exports in February, analysts said. [ID:nPEK194920].

"The dramatic deterioration in China's trade balance suggests that caution remains recommended and a lasting reversal in the dollar trend is unlikely," said Commerzbank in a research note.

"The concern is that maybe China will not be able to generate massive amounts of foreign exchange capital, which can then be recycled to U.S. Treasury securities. That is the big fear factor that hangs over the dollar," said Boris Schlossberg, GFT's director of FX research in New York.

The pound hit a six-week low against the dollar at $1.3658 GBP= but it then recovered to $1.3812, up 0.5 percent on the day. The euro was up 0.3 percent versus sterling at 92.43 pence EURGBP=. (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Leslie Adler)



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