Business Books: Forecasting the fallout from financial crisis

By Tom Hals

NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Does the current global economic crisis set the stage for a future marked by cramped and violent American cities or a vibrant democracy enriched by low-cost mass transit powered by renewable energy?

As the U.S. downturn deepens, a handful of books autopsy the financial implosion, assign blame and chart the needed reforms or potential consequences.

Michael Panzner serves up pessimism and doom by the shovelful in "When Giants Fall" (Wiley, $27.95).

Financial catastrophe will undermine the United States' economic and military power, he writes. Competing nations such as China and India will rush to fill the vacuum and the scramble for influence will undermine the current global economic structure. Trading groups such as the North American Free-Trade Agreement will collapse and tensions will erupt over resources including food and water.

The book follows Panzner's "Financial Armageddon," in which he warned, before most Americans ever heard the word "subprime," that the country's reliance on debt and derivatives would bring ruin and stagnation.

"Giants" promises that those sufficiently prepared can prosper amid the rubble. However, the 25-year veteran of Wall Street sounds a bit like a survivalist as he offers advice for identifying cities with adequate food and energy supplies rather than investment funds that will grow a nest egg. Of course, that's his point.

In "The Gods that Failed" (Nation Books, $26.95), two London-based financial journalists sift through the changes to the financial, labor and trading structures since World War Two and trace the flow of power from individuals to what they call the New Olympians.

This new global class draws from the ranks of business, think tanks and government and is best represented at their annual family reunion in Davos, Switzerland.

Larry Elliot, the economics editor of the Guardian, and Dan Atkinson, his counterpart at The Mail on Sunday, argue in their third collaboration that the current crisis will clear the way for what they call the New Populism.

This coalition of middle class professionals, unionized workers, independent farmers and the vast array of workers threatened by outsourcing will unite to fight to replace the pursuit of "shareholder value" with a spirit of fairness and decency, they argue.

The authors foresee the growing power of this movement will mark the decline of institutions such as the European Union and International Monetary Fund, which have served the interests of multinational business.

William Greider, a regular contributor to Rolling Stone, strikes similar themes in "Come Home, America" (Rodale Books, $25.95), to be issued next month. While the book also covers U.S. war efforts and the military threat from China and Russia, Greider's arguments about the failings of globalization echo those of Elliot and Atkinson.

He floats relatively radical proposals such as withdrawing from international trade agreements and capping the trade deficit.

The author describes what he calls the "underground river" of popular revolt could burst to the surface at any point, as it did during the civil rights movement in the 1950s. Greider argues that these unseen currents have the potential to rip the U.S. two-party system and reclaim the economy and politics for the benefit of the masses.

As the United States implements a $787 billion stimulus plan, Felix Rohatyn takes readers through a brief history of U.S. public works projects and their benefits in his new book "Bold Endeavors" (Simon & Schuster, $26).