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UPDATE 3-EA forecasts fiscal 2011 revenue above $6 bln

Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:25pm EST

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By Scott Hillis

REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Feb 12 (Reuters) - U.S. video game publisher Electronic Arts Inc (ERTS.O) on Tuesday gave confident forecasts for growth over the next three years fueled by new titles and revitalized franchises, sending its shares up more than 5 percent.

The publisher of blockbuster games like "Madden" and "Need for Speed" said it expected revenue to exceed $6 billion in fiscal 2011, which was better than the average forecast from two analysts of $4.9 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.

It would also be a 53 percent increase from Wall Street's forecast revenue of $3.9 billion for fiscal 2008.

"It's a big number. It's never been done in the game software industry before," Chief Executive John Riccitiello told analysts at a meeting at EA's headquarters in Redwood City, California.

"It's a wide margin greater than I think anybody else is forecasting," he said.

Riccitiello became CEO last year and is credited with revitalizing franchises like "Madden" football game, "Need for Speed" racing and "Battlefield" combat game.

EA, however, is being challenged by Activision Inc's (ATVI.O) impending merger with French media conglomerate Vivendi's (VIV.PA) games unit. Once that deal is completed, the two rivals will be roughly the same size in terms of revenue.

"Spore" is one of several new titles that EA is counting on to fuel growth. EA said it would begin shipping the game, in which players nurture microbes into a galaxy-spanning civilization, worldwide on Sept. 7.

EA had said in late January that "Spore" would be released before the holiday season, an apparent delay from earlier comments that pointed to a spring debut. Postponed releases of two other video game titles had caused EA to give a disappointing quarterly outlook on Jan. 30.

APPROACHABILITY

Investors have been waiting for EA to give its outlook and outline plans to stop its market share slide over the last few years. Executives on Tuesday spoke frankly about missteps.

"We have a business that has been stalling. It is a solid business but it needs a bit more propulsion, a bit more energy at times," said Peter Moore, head of EA Sports, which oversees games like "Madden" and "FIFA 08" soccer."

Moore, who used to head Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O) Xbox game console division, said a goal was to make games that nongamers can pick up and play. "There is a lack of approachability. That's something we're fixing, yet we're not going to dumb down the game," he said.

Moore said his division is targeting revenue of between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion in fiscal 2011, up from a forecast $1.25 billion in fiscal 2008.

Riccitiello said EA was targeting operating income of at least $1.5 billion in fiscal 2011, adding, "We're a far cry from that and a lot more needs to change."

"We feel comfortable that this is what we are targeting for fiscal 2011," he said of the forecasts, including an estimate for digital revenue of at least $900 million.

Frank Gibeau, head of EA Games, in charge of some of the titles for more mature audiences, said his main goal was to get a pipeline of hits by revitalizing old franchises and launch new properties, such as a horror game called "Dead Space."

"It's a clear turnaround story," Gibeau said.

Kathy Vrabeck, head of EA Casual, which oversees mobile and online casual games business, said she expected the division to be a highly profitable business with $1 billion in revenue by 2011, up from a forecast $420 million revenue this year.

EA shares rose as much as 7.7 percent on the Nasdaq before closing at $48.85, up 5.4 percent. (Additional reporting by Franklin Paul and Tiffany Wu in New York; Editing by Dave Zimmerman, Phil Berlowitz)



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