REPEAT-Bay Street Week Ahead-A bonanza of mining mergers
(Repeats Friday column)
TORONTO, April 15 (Reuters) - Corporate takeovers may have been last year's story in the Canadian mining sector, but a recent flurry of announced deals combined with tight metals markets suggests the M&A bonanza will continue.
The blockbuster takeovers of venerable miners Inco and Falconbridge in 2006 took two of the biggest names out of Canada's mining sector.
But with metals prices at historic highs, smaller companies that remain are desperate to gain scale, while foreign players are eager to grab up what's left.
"We've seen an awful lot of foreign-led takeovers, and I think that's going to continue," said Glenn MacNeill, chief investment officer at Sentry Select Capital Management.
"They have the capital, and their cost of capital is lower than ours."
Still-strong foreign interest was in evidence as Swiss miner Xstrata Plc (XTA.L), fresh from its takeover of Falconbridge, said last month it would buy Canadian nickel miner LionOre (LIM.TO) for US$4 billion.
Domestic mid-tier miner Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN.TO), meanwhile, has announced two offers in as many weeks, pledging C$1.4 billion for Tenke Mining TNK.TO and C$864 million for Rio Narcea Gold Mines RNG.TO.
This activity, and speculation of more of the same, has boosted the share prices of miners with exposure to in-demand metals such as nickel, copper, zinc and uranium.
Over the last two weeks, the Toronto Stock Exchange's materials sector, which includes mining issues and makes up just under 20 percent of the broader Toronto stock index, has risen 5 percent.
The S&P/TSX composite index .GSPTSE finished the past week at 13,578.62, a record closing high, and touched a record high of 13,581.27 during Friday's session.
The sectoral interest comes courtesy of a commodity price boom as base metals have been boosted by China-led demand and lean global inventories.
Analysts say the M&A activity should continue, as companies scramble to sweep up other small names that have grown rapidly into the C$1 billion to C$4 billion market capitalization range, prime territory for hungry buyers.
"There is still lots of action to be had," said Jeremy Link, an analyst at Northern Securities.
While metal price are largely expected to retreat from their recent highs, companies will continue to make money hand over fist, which they will need to make use of, he says.
"They may have their own projects to develop, but with these margins they have right now, the best thing for them to do is either start buying back stock, pay a dividend, or go out there and acquire assets that are already in operation."
Likely Canadian targets include Dynatec Corp. DY.TO, which has a 40 percent interest in the Ambatovy nickel project in Madagascar, FNX Mining (FNX.TO), which is well-placed in the nickel rich Sudbury Basin, and First Quantum (FM.TO), whose copper production should make it appeal to larger players, according to UBS Investment Research.
Potential domestic buyers include Lundin, which has been vocal in its ambitions to add bulk, along with HudBay Minerals (HBM.TO), and Aur Resources AUR.TO. Copper and zinc major Teck Cominco (TCKb.TO) has size and cash, but has been more focused on joint ventures of late.
The shrinking pool of quality base metal assets has resulted in a "scarcity premium" on the stocks that has pushed their valuations closer to European-listed miners, which have typically been awarded a superior level, says UBS.
"The big companies are at 52-week highs. Now is a great time for them if they're going to do a transaction and use their own paper to do it," said Link.
($1=$1.14 Canadian)
