RPT-SCENARIOS-Argentine gov't fights to keep farm tax powers
BUENOS AIRES, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Argentina's lower house voted on Thursday to extend President Cristina Fernandez's power to set farm export taxes, a crucial source of state revenue [nN12188831].
The taxes are at the center of a long-running political showdown between Fernandez and farmers who have led protests demanding they be cut.
If senators approve the extension, Fernandez's ability to levy export taxes without congressional approval will be renewed for one year.
Here are some possible scenarios and implications of the bill and the taxes:
NEXT STEP IN CONGRESS
Despite losing her Senate majority in a June election, Fernandez still controls the upper house because newly elected lawmakers do not take their seats until December. That is likely to be enough time to ensure the bill's approval.
Senators could reject the extension, but that is unlikely. The Senate tends to represent provincial and rural interests more strongly, which could mean senators may see a greater need for some sort of concession on the farm export taxes.
They could decide to send the bill back to the lower house for a shorter extension or some other change.
NEW CONGRESS PASSES LAW TO REVOKE EXTENSION
After the new Congress takes office in December, stronger ranks of opposition lawmakers, many of whom have called for cuts to the taxes on soy, wheat and corn shipments, could pass a law revoking the extension and push through another bill to cut the grains levies.
Sustained protests by farmers or mounting anti-government complaints by other sectors could spur them to challenge Fernandez's administration.
POWERS WOULD GIVE GOVERNMENT BREATHING ROOM
A one-year extension would give Fernandez's government some additional breathing room through mid-2010, a tight financing year. In the meantime, Economy Minister Amado Boudou might be able to negotiate measures to ensure the country's return to global credit markets or a debt swap to ease the repayment strain.
(Writing by Helen Popper)
