MIT math model could boost natural gas production

NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - A mathematical model developed by engineers could provide energy companies with clearer vision to manage their natural gas production and boost supplies of the cleaner-burning fuel, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said on Wednesday.

Natural gas operators can be overwhelmed by the vast number of choices to be made and obligations to be met under supply contracts with customers and facility- and production-sharing agreements with other firms.

Because natural gas is difficult to transport and store, energy companies tend to produce it only when they have buyers lined up and transportation capacity available, generally under long-term contracts.

According to Professor Paul I. Barton at MIT's Department of Chemical Engineering, the only way for a company to optimize such a system is to formulate it as a mathematical problem and solve it.

"If there were just one or two decisions to make, an engineer could do it," he said. "But, when you've got 20 valves to set and 50 different constraints to satisfy, it's impossible for a person to see. Computer procedures can take all of that into account."

While other models have focused on optimizing individual subsystems, the new MIT model encompasses the whole system and could put an end to missed opportunities for short-term sales and increase the overall availability of natural gas.

It focuses on the upstream supply chain, the system from natural gas reservoirs to bulk consumers such as power plants, utility companies and liquefied natural gas plants.

Barton and chemical engineering graduate student Ajay Selot have spent the two years developing a mathematical model to help guide operator decisions one to three months in advance.

"Ideally, operators would like to make decisions based on information from the entire system," Selot said.

Based on fundamental physical principles, the researchers' model describes gas flow, pressure and composition inside every pipeline in the network.

The MIT engineers are collaborating with experts at Shell (RDSa.L) to apply the model to a natural gas production system in Malaysia.

They are working closely with field engineers at Sarawak Shell Berhad and Shell International Exploration and Production to build a realistic representation of the Sarawak system - a challenge, as the system is the product of decades of evolution rather than coordinated planning.

All of the system's complexity must be reflected in the mathematical model if it is to be of practical value to the Sarawak planners.