• Most Popular
  • Most Shared

Emerging debt-Spreads widen on UST rally, Interpol decision

Thu May 15, 2008 4:28pm EDT

* Yield spreads widen due to U.S. Treasury rally

Bonds  |  Global Markets

* Sovereign dollar bond prices hold ground

* Venezuelan credit hurt by Interpol authentication

By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - Emerging market assets gained ground on Thursday, with dollar bonds marginally higher and stock prices on growing hopes the U.S. financial market crisis has peaked.

A rally in U.S. Treasuries, based on soft May manufacturing data and a rise in the number of unemployed people remaining on government assistance after an initial week of jobless benefits, however, resulted in wider yield spreads for sovereign dollar debt.

"There is a certain sense that this phase of the financial crisis is winding down. Inflation remains the main problem at the moment," said Igor Arsenin, emerging markets debt strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.

(For more on the U.S. economy, click on [ID:nN15515443])

Key members of the U.S. Senate reached a deal on a sweeping housing rescue plan, sources told Reuters on Thursday. Progress on supplying aid to the ailing U.S. housing sector plus further accounting for bad mortgage-related investments by investment banks is raising hopes that financial markets might have a chance to start a recovery.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International's emerging markets stock index .MSCIEF was up 1.18 percent while the Latin American index .MILA00000PUS traded at record highs, up 1.31 percent on the day.

In the credit markets, the benchmark JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus 11EMJ.JPMEMBIPLUS yield spread widened by 6 basis points over stronger U.S. Treasuries to 261 basis points.

Spreads for Argentina's portion of the EMBI+ narrowed by 1 basis point to 558 basis points while total returns dropped 0.25 percent.

Argentina's bonds managed to hold onto a portion of their early gains on what appeared to be signs from President Cristina Fernandez that the government might be willing to resume talks with farmers currently on strike over a new sliding-scale export tax.

One leading farm figure, however, said on Thursday the strike is likely to continue.

Venezuela's bonds underperformed the market as oil prices fell and Interpol, the international police agency, said documents found on Colombian rebel computers were authentic but would not pass judgment on the actual contents.

Colombian charges that Venezuela and Ecuador supported the guerrillas but these two leftish governments dismiss the accusations as a U.S.-backed campaign to discredit them.

Venezuela's portion of the EMBI+ widened by 11 basis points to 668 basis points as total returns on the day fell 0.28 percent.

"The market traded better this morning, but into the afternoon, this Interpol report is putting pressure on Venezuela. I don't see why it should be a big deal but it's having a negative impact," said one senior trader at a German bank in New York.

"Trading volume is not great. Aside from Venezuela and Argentina, everything is pretty much steady as she goes," the trader added.

Looking ahead to Friday, Mexico's central bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy-setting meeting. The benchmark interest rate is 7.50 percent MXCBIR=ECI.

"It looks like they will probably leave interest rates unchanged but will present a much more hawkish tone in their language in the communique ... Hawkish language would be positive for the peso and while it may not happen right away, a level of 10.40 to the dollar may be tested again," Arsenin said.

Separately, Turkey's benchmark sovereign bond slipped 0.25 of a point in price to bid 152.438, yielding 7.096 percent TRGLB30=RR on Thursday after the central bank raised interest rates in a move to undercut inflation pressures. The bank signaled further tightening could come. (Editing by Jan Paschal)



More from Reuters

Photo

U.S. probing if al Qaeda linked to airplane incident

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is investigating whether al Qaeda was involved in a Christmas Day attempt to blow up a passenger jet, but there is no early evidence the Nigerian suspect in the case was part of a larger plot, the U.S. homeland security chief said on Sunday. | Video

A Delta Airbus 330 airliner sits on a runway at Detroit Metropolitan Airport in Romulus, Michigan in this video grab made December 25, 2009. Credit: REUTERS/WDIV TV/Handout

The battle in mid-air

The attraction of bombing airliners means the aviation industry has to be constantly vigilant in its fight against attackers.  Full Article 

A caution sign is seen next to a stock board at the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in Sydney September 5, 2008. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz
Political Risk in 2010:

Don't say we didn't warn you

With the financial crisis (mostly) in the past, U.S. investors are eying a fresh start to the coming year. Here's a look at what speedbumps lie ahead.  Full Article