Obama, McCain vie for New Hampshire "swing" votes

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (Reuters) - The "Dinah-Mite Bursting Breakfast" is popular at the Red Arrow Diner in New Hampshire's largest city, but politics is also on the menu in the state that could help decide who wins the U.S. presidency.

"People are always talking about politics and who is supporting who -- I would say it's now a nearly even 50-50 split between Republicans and Democrats," said Roy Donohue, general manager at the all-night eatery tucked away on a side street in Manchester, a city of 107,200 people.

Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are fiercely courting New Hampshire's famously independent voters as shifting political allegiances in the state make it one of several toss-ups in the tight November 4 election.

President George W. Bush won the Granite State in 2000 by a narrow 7,000 votes. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried the state by just 9,000 votes but lost the general election.

While only four electoral votes are at stake, the close fight for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House makes New Hampshire and other "swing" states such as Virginia, Nevada and Colorado critical to both Obama and McCain.

"Unless something changes very radically, it will probably be very close again in New Hampshire," said Ray Buckley, chairman of the state's Democratic Party.

McCain, who attended a NASCAR race in Manchester a week ago, enjoys several advantages in New Hampshire. The mountainous state often defies liberal New England stereotypes. It has prohibitions on income and sales taxes and a proud libertarian streak expressed in the motto "Live Free or Die."

The Arizona senator's "maverick" persona goes down well in the state of 1.3 million people, which supported Republicans in every presidential election from the mid-1960s until 1992 and helped to launch McCain's White House aspirations.

McCain came from behind twice to win New Hampshire's Republican presidential nominating primary in 2000 and 2008. Obama lost his New Hampshire primary bid.

Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center, said McCain appeals to the distinctly northeastern brand of Rockefeller Republicanism, named after former Vice President Nelson Rockefeller and espoused by fiscal conservatives with moderate views on social issues like abortion.

"TOSS UP"

"There's no question that it is a toss up," said Fergus Cullen, chairman of the state's Republican Party. "But McCain has a special relationship with New Hampshire voters, especially with the independents here who drove both of his primary wins in 2000 and 2008," he said.

An average of polls by the website RealClearPolitics showed Obama leading McCain in the state by 48.0 to 44.7 percent.

Buckley of the state's Democratic Party said he expects Bush's unpopularity and the state's shifting demographics to help Obama, who campaigned in New Hampshire a week ago.

In 2000, Republicans and Democrats each made up about 38 percent of the electorate. Six years later, Democrats expanded to 43 percent and Republicans shrank to 31 percent with both parties chasing independent votes that can swing an election.

Democrats say New Hampshire is moving politically and socially closer to its New England neighbors, citing its support of same-sex civil unions in 2007, a popular Democratic governor and the Democrats' first sweep of the state legislature in 132 years in 2006.

"We're very optimistic," said Buckley, adding the pick of first-term Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's No. 2 could hurt his standing with New Hampshire's many moderate Republicans because of her conservative views, including opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest.

Obama's New Hampshire campaign spokeswoman Sandra Abrevaya sees McCain's opposition to abortion rights and Obama's support for them as a crucial issue in the state along with the economy and pocket-book issues such as rising heating oil costs.

McCain's New Hampshire campaign manager, Jim Barnett, said he expects McCain's maverick image as a tax-cutter and crusader against wasteful spending to resonate with voters.

"New Hampshire is largely going to be a replay of what happened in 2000 and 2004 with somebody winning by a percentage point," said Smith at the University of New Hampshire.