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Overstock plummets, investors spooked on growth

Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:55pm EDT

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CHICAGO/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Overstock.com Inc (OSTK.O) shares tumbled about 40 percent on Friday following a downgrade by one brokerage, as higher spending and fears of slowing growth spooked investors despite a narrower loss.

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The sell-off abruptly ended a 78 percent rise since January in shares of the online retailer that sells excess goods such as furniture, clothing and accessories.

Stifel Nicolaus cut its rating to "sell" from "hold," with analyst Scott Devitt noting that even if shares traded at $20 -- they closed Thursday at $27.70 -- they would still be valued above Overstock's peer group.

Overstock's net loss was $6.5 million, or 28 cents per share, for the quarter ended June 30 compared with a net loss of $13.8 million, or 58 cents per share, a year earlier.

Three analysts polled by Reuters Estimates had forecast on average a loss of 28 cents per share.

Total revenue increased 27 percent, to $188.8 million from $149 million, helped by growth in the company's fulfillment partner business. That sector acts as a liaison between companies looking to get rid of surplus products, with the goods shipped by third-party partners.

Devitt noted that Overstock confirmed during its call that it faced easier growth comparisons this quarter over the prior year, but that they would become more difficult in the latter half of the year.

"So the growth rate will be closer to 17 percent rather than 27 percent," Devitt told Reuters.

Sales and marketing expense rose 79 percent during the quarter, Overstock said.

"That's not good," Devitt said. "That means they're not creating loyalty on the site they're having to spend for their growth."

As Oppenheimer analyst Shawne Milne wrote in a note published on Thursday, "Management's willingness to spend on brand advertising remains a wild card."

Higher spending also crimps profit margins, and Devitt noted that the company may likely never achieve operating profit margins over 2 to 3 percent at scale, compared with the 8 percent he foresees from larger competitor Amazon.com Inc

(AMZN.O).

Higher gasoline and food costs in the weak U.S. economy may be driving more people online to seek deals and avoid gas-guzzling trips to the mall.

Still, those expectations may be overblown on Wall Street. Shares of eBay Inc (EBAY.O), whose online auctions are popular with bargain seekers, fell 7 percent on Thursday due to a tepid near-term revenue outlook.

And investors are concerned that Amazon's quarterly results, to be released next week, may suggest that consumers are pulling back on spending due to the economy.

Overstock Chief Executive Patrick Byrne told analysts that the company would increase its spending on capital expenditures this year to $15 million from initial projections of $10 million due to better deals on hardware and software.

Overstock could see anywhere from a loss of $12 million to net profit of up to $10 million for the year, Byrne said.

Wall Street on average is expecting a net loss of $12 million for the year.

Overstock shares were down 38.7 percent, or $10.73, at $16.97 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq after falling to

$16.74.

Internet stocks overall were weak, with Google Inc (GOOG.O) down nearly 10 percent, Amazon.com down nearly 4 percent and ValueClick Inc (VCLK.O) down more than 7 percent.

(Reporting by Erin Zureick and Alexandria Sage; Editing by Mark Porter and Brian Moss)



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