Ardent Clinton supporters eyed in election

CINCINNATI (Reuters) - Homemaker Mary Mardis, 52, liked U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton but now she's not sure who she'll vote for in November. Maybe Barack Obama, who beat Clinton to win the Democratic nomination. Maybe Republican John McCain.

"I was leaning toward Hillary. Now I'm undecided," said Mardis as she wheeled her baby nephew through a Cincinnati bookstore. "I will vote, but I'll probably be one of those people who decide two days beforehand."

Since Clinton conceded to rival Obama in the Democratic race on June 7, there has been endless speculation about the intentions of her disappointed female supporters.

Would they refuse to support Obama? Not vote in November's presidential election? Or worse, throw their support to Republican McCain?

Everywhere, it seems, there are examples of each.

Furious loyalists of the former first lady protested at a Democratic Party meeting in Washington, vowing to bolt from the party if Clinton did not win the nomination.

Last week, the co-chairs of the University of Iowa Students for Hillary told followers they should vote for McCain, or, if they could not "stomach" that, consider Cynthia McKinney, the presumptive Green Party candidate.

On the other hand, prominent feminist and women's rights organizations, including Emily's List and Planned Parenthood, have rallied behind Obama and begun attacking McCain for his conservative record on issues like abortion.

Clinton endorsed Obama and urged her backers to throw their support behind the Illinois senator.

American women have tended to be more Democratic than Republican since 1980, though their party loyalty varies depending on the election year and candidates. This year, too, polls show most American women prefer Obama to McCain -- by a wide margin.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week showed 52 percent of women favored Obama, while 33 percent preferred McCain.

But the same poll showed 19 percent of voters who cast ballots for Clinton in the Democratic primaries preferred McCain over Obama -- a large number considering Clinton and Obama agree on most policies, while McCain's platform is strikingly different.

TEMPERS WILL COOL

Lingering intraparty bitterness over the U.S. primary process is nothing new. McCain denied reports earlier this year that he did not vote for George W. Bush in 2000 after losing to him in the Republican primaries that year.

That somehow Clinton's female supporters would be especially bitter because the New York senator missed her chance to be the first female U.S. president does not strike Kristi Andersen, a political science professor at Syracuse University, as terribly plausible.

"Even if people meant that when they said it right after Clinton dropped out, as the differences between Obama and McCain are more clearly drawn, it's pretty hard for me to imagine that there will be a significant group (switching to McCain)," said Andersen.

Kay Schlozman, political science professor at Boston College, agreed. But she said the reason the issue is getting attention is because even a segment of disaffected Clinton supporters could have an impact if the election is close.

"If older, Democratic women either vote less Democratic than they usually do or have the propensity to stay home more than they usually do, then we can say that's the thing that tipped the scales," Schlozman said.

"But the same could be said" for other issues this year, like race or the Iraq war, Schlozman noted.

Author and anti-racist activist Tim Wise suspects race could be behind some of the anti-Obama sentiment among Clinton supporters. Obama would be the first black U.S. president.

"Voting against Senator Obama is not about gender solidarity. It is an act of white racial bonding," Wise wrote in an open letter to progressive female Clinton supporters.

For her part, retired Cincinnati theater teacher Frances Haas, an ardent Clinton supporter, said it would be ridiculous for her to vote for anyone but Obama in November.

"I'm not very happy with Obama ... but obviously I could never vote for McCain," said Haas, 72, a longtime Democrat. While she worried about Obama's inexperience and idealistic outlook, staying home in November also wasn't an option.

"What is that going to prove? Now is not the time for a sit-in. Not voting is not going to help Hillary. That's just silly."

(Editing by David Wiessler)