Biden, Romney and Pawlenty deemed top VP picks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With speculation over U.S. vice presidential picks at a boil, prediction markets on Wednesday judged Democrat Joseph Biden and Republicans Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty most likely to get the nod.

Traders on the Dublin-based Intrade market gave Biden, a U.S. senator and former presidential candidate from Delaware, a 38.5 percent chance of being named as Democratic candidate Barack Obama's running mate in the November 4 election.

On the Republican side, traders deemed Pawlenty, a Minnesota governor, and Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and former presidential candidate, an equal 30 percent chance of joining John McCain's ticket.

Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge trailed at 20 percent.

Obama is expected to name his running mate sometime this week, before the Democratic convention kicks off in Denver on Monday. McCain is expected to name his pick on August 29, before the Republican convention in Minneapolis begins on September 1.

Biden's prospects increased sharply over the past week as he visited war-torn Georgia.

Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine was given a 21 percent chance to be picked by Obama, while Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius were each given a 15 percent chance.

Traders gave Obama an 62 percent chance of winning the November election, versus 39 percent for McCain.

Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by the business professors at the University of Iowa, made similar predictions, giving the Democratic candidate a 61 percent chance of victory versus 38 percent for the Republican.

Contracts on the political prediction exchanges are structured so trading prices are expressed as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. Studies have shown that the predictive power of markets is comparable to that of opinion polls..

(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; editing by David Wiessler)