Potential triple dissent to test Bernanke

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a potential mauling from three policy hawks in August that may test his apparent desire to keep interest rates steady until the smoke clears a bit more in financial markets.

Analysts sense that the outcome predicted by financial markets for the August 5 meeting of the monetary policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee -- a steady federal funds rate -- will come only after a bruising debate.

"Hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser raise the odds that three FOMC members will dissent at the August meeting," said economists at Lehman Brothers. "It would be the first time since November 1992."

Plosser this week said the Fed should start to reverse course "sooner rather than later," echoing comments Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern delivered on Friday.

"We can't wait until we clearly observe the financial markets at normal, the economy growing robustly, and so on," said Stern, the Fed's longest-serving regional president but one who has not joined this year's jamboree of dissenters.

Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher is arguably the ring-leader among the inflation hawks. Of Fed officials who get a vote this year on rates, Fisher has been the most outspoken and has already registered four dissents in favor of tighter policy.

Even with dissent in the air, financial markets see just a 10 percent chance for an increase in benchmark overnight rates in August from their current 2 percent.

By September, however, perceived prospects for a rate increase jump to 68 percent. Dealers fully price a hike by October and a possible year-end federal funds rate of 2.5 percent.

BERNANKE RULES

Still, Bernanke last week seemed to imply that the Fed is still a ways from a rate increase. If he prevails, the sense of his leadership of the Fed will be enhanced.

In contrast to the recent sharp rhetoric from Stern and Plosser, Bernanke suggested to Congress that greater stability in the financial system needs to be achieved before the Fed will act.

The global credit crunch, now approaching its first anniversary, has produced several false dawns, only to catch markets and policy-makers by surprise by taking a new and more damaging turn.

The assessment offered by the FOMC after its last meeting in late June that downside risks to growth had "diminished somewhat" was summarily ditched by Bernanke last week.

"Chairman Bernanke is clearly first among equals. Therefore, conflicts between his take on the world and those of other members should generally be resolved in his favor," Ed McKelvey, economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a research note.

Indeed, a study this week by the economic forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers showed that Bernanke now towers above the FOMC crowd in his ability to move markets, and presumably to telegraph the path of monetary policy.

More tolerance for open dissent seems to be a hallmark of the Fed under Bernanke's leadership, making the prospect of three dissents less of a crisis than it might appear.

Speaking in Tacoma, Washington in May on the Fed's inner workings, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said a more direct interchange of views is encouraged by Bernanke.

"Dissent and open discussion are important in the process of policy-making, but the chairman's vote carries more weight," said Asha Bangalore, economist at Northern Trust in Chicago.

BRAKES ON INFLATION?

In the week since Bernanke acknowledged a heightened level of financial stress, jitters have subsided enough to pull the U.S. stock market out of bear market territory.

Even so, some pundits consider the still-wide spread of the London interbank offered rate to the expected federal funds rate as a sign that strains continue and could flare up.

A Deutsche Bank index using various measures to gauge financial conditions shows that despite a string of rate cuts since mid-September, conditions are still weak and are likely to keep economic growth depressed.

Third-quarter growth also presents a challenge for an economy that so far has avoided a clear recession. As the impact of tax rebate checks fades away, stagnation -- or worse -- in retail spending is possible.

"The absence of tax rebate money in the third quarter will create an air pocket in consumer outlays. We expect an outright decline for third-quarter real GDP," said Robert Barbera, economist at investment firm ITG in Rye Brook, New York.

Slow growth, weak labor markets and falling energy prices suggest the inflation crisis the Fed is suiting up to fight could partially resolve itself.

Headline inflation, which cried out for urgent policy action in June, could look different in July if recent declines in crude oil and commodity prices continue.

Goldman Sachs' McKelvey said that the shift to tightening will require a high bar characterized by three conditions: signs of stabilization in the labor market, the housing market and the financial markets.

"An economy that fails to meet these conditions is not only vulnerable to rate increases, but also unlikely to experience a broad-based pickup in inflation," he said.

(Editing by James Dalgleish)