Networks strike out in challenging season

By James Hibberd

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - The 2007-08 season will go down as one of the strangest and most difficult periods in broadcast history.

Ratings hit a record low thanks to a perfect storm of the Hollywood writers strike, the proliferation of digital video recorders and DVDs, and continued defections to cable.

Apart from Fox, which won the season with 11 million viewers (up seven percent, based on latest returns), all the networks lost viewers. CBS fell to No. 2 with 10.5 million (down 16 percent), followed by ABC (9.2 million, down seven percent), NBC (8.1 million, down nine percent), and the ailing CW network (2.6 million, down 19 percent).

Fox was powered by "American Idol." Although the talent show fell in the ratings this season, it still finished as the top show. Wednesday's finale pulled in slightly more viewers than last year's (32 million, up three percent). Fox also led the field for a fourth season among adults 18-49, a demographic that advertisers pay a premium to reach.

The season got off to a wobbly start in September even before writers downed their pencils two months later. Hit shows were returning to the lineup down an average of about 8% in the ratings from the previous year. Yet as the weeks ticked by, some networks still had positive stories to tell. Fox was gaining some traction, and new ABC shows like "Pushing Daisies" were finding fans.

"The season got off to a very good start, but what ended up happening was like a car that started picking up speed and then ran into a wall," said Bill Carroll, director of programming at Katz Television Group, a New York-based consulting firm.

As the season rolled over into 2008, NBC countered the strike with a surge of reality programming. "The Biggest Loser: Couples," a celebrity edition of "The Apprentice" and the debut of "American Gladiators" initially proved effective.

And once the walkout concluded in February, there were more upbeat headlines as CBS enjoyed record ratings for the return of its Monday comedy block. The numbers suggested that, just maybe, things weren't so bad after all.

But then as full schedules returned, viewers did not. Such hit dramas as ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" and CBS' "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" plumbed record lows, and programs with serialized elements were hit especially hard.

Only after networks entered the May sweep, the season's traditional home stretch, did the damage of the strike and fractured viewing become clear: Networks were down double digits during the sweep despite running at full steam on most nights.

"The most difficult network television season ever," said John Rash, senior vp at ad agency Campbell Mithun. "Every network needs to work so that it doesn't get worse for next year. Almost all are betting the dizzying decline in ratings was the result of the writers strike and not a more fundamental shift away from broadcast."

With DVR penetration at 24% (compared with 15% last year), the story improves slightly when looking at the full season and factoring seven days of viewing per show. But not by much.

Another factor is that broadcast viewers are going to cable. Nielsen audience levels show there's just as many viewers watching television programming as last year, if not a little more, and that ad-supported cable is enjoying double-digit overall gains.

The odd, downbeat year made renewing shows especially difficult. Several shows are returning after scoring ratings that would have earned them the heave-ho in previous years, including Fox's "'Til Death," ABC's "Boston Legal" and CBS' "The Unit."

Of the outright canceled shows, NBC's "Bionic Woman" averaged 9.8 million viewers, 60 percent more than "'Til Death." NBC let "Scrubs" (6.3 million) go to ABC, even though the veteran comedy did similar numbers to the critical darling "30 Rock."

With second-chance shows populating the fall schedule rather than new offerings, TV historian Tim Brooks said the most significant impact of the current season may still be to come.

"This fall will be the leanest season of new programs, perhaps ever," Brooks said. "Networks are reducing their chances for a comeback or stabilization by not putting more on the shelf. What broadcast really needs is the next 'House,' the next 'Idol."'

Another factor is whether viewers will return to last year's truncated freshman crop, including promising entries like Fox's "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" and ABC's "Pushing Daisies." Will audiences watch shows they barely remember?

"The shows will create a challenge for networks to reintroduce them to the public without the abundant free media that usually accompanies new programs," Rash said. "This is uncharted territory."

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter