UPDATE 5-Tropical Storm Gustav bears down on Haiti
(Updates with storm strengthening, latest position)
By Jim Loney
MIAMI, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The Atlantic hurricane season's seventh tropical storm formed in the central Caribbean on Monday and could strengthen into a hurricane before striking vulnerable Haiti, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Tropical Storm Gustav threatened the impoverished Caribbean nation of 9 million with up to 25 inches (64 cm) of rain in some place, which could trigger deadly floods and mudslides.
It strengthened late on Monday and was expected to become a hurricane and hit Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, on Tuesday.
Oil prices rose as Gustav stirred concerns about disruptions to U.S. oil and gas output in the Gulf of Mexico and served as another reminder that this six-month storm season is shaping up to be busier than usual. At least one computer forecasting model showed the storm could enter the Gulf.
Hurricane warnings were issued for the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti west of Barahona.
Gustav was about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, the Haitian capital, at 11 p.m. on Monday (0300 GMT on Tuesday) and was moving toward the northwest at 12 mph (19 kph), the Miami-based hurricane center said.
The storm's top sustained winds were near 70 mph (110 kph), and the center forecast the storm would become a hurricane on Tuesday, with winds of at least 74 mph (120 kph).
The storm was expected to be near or over southwest Haiti on Tuesday.
'INTENSE RAINS'
Haiti was still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Fay, the remnants of which were causing flooding across the U.S. southeastern states. Fay may have killed more than 50 people in Haiti last week, including dozens missing after floodwaters swept a bus down a river.
Forecasters said Gustav could produce rainfall of 5 to 7 inches (13-18 cm) over Hispaniola, with the possibility of 15 to 25 inches (38-64 cm) in isolated areas.
"These intense rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," the hurricane center said.
Haiti is vulnerable to devastating floods because its hillsides have been stripped of trees by people desperate for charcoal to be used as cooking fuel. In 2004, Tropical Storm Jeanne was blamed for flooding that killed some 3,000 people and spring floods killed 2,000 earlier that year.
The official forecast called for Gustav to move to the northwest across Haiti and over Cuba toward the Gulf of Mexico, but the computer models used to predict the future path of hurricanes disagreed significantly.
Some had it moving more toward the west, south of Cuba in the direction of Jamaica and then Mexico's Yucatan peninsula. Another showed Gustav moving over Cuba and into the Gulf. Yet another had it crossing Hispaniola and heading into the open Atlantic.
Energy markets have been riveted by the movements of tropical storms and hurricanes since the devastating Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, when a series of storms disrupted oil and gas production.
The 2005 season saw Katrina, the costliest hurricane in U.S. history with some $80 billion in damage, as well as Rita and Wilma, all of which raged through the Gulf. (Additional reporting by Michael Christie in Miami; editing by Tom Brown and Mohammad Zargham)
