Long road from "rogue" status seen for North Korea

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea, a charter member of U.S. President George W. Bush's "axis of evil," on Thursday took a step on the road to rehabilitation that Washington hopes Iran and other "rogue" states will follow.

Analysts caution, however, that the United States still has its work cut out for it simply keeping North Korea focused on nuclear disarmament -- let alone tackling the atomic ambitions of an Iran that continues to thumb its nose at U.S. diplomacy.

A wary Bush began easing some sanctions after North Korea handed over a long-delayed account of its nuclear activities, but he warned of "consequences" if Pyongyang did not live up to a complex deal that took five years to bear initial fruit.

The president did not answer a reporter's question about whether North Korea was still part of the "axis of evil" -- a term Bush applied to it along with Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Iran after the September 11 attacks in 2001.

Stephen Hadley, Bush's national security adviser, likewise avoided a direct reply to the same question, citing a litany of problems with North Korea, from human rights to ballistic missiles to conventional forces.

Asked if the "axis" stigma no longer applied to North Korea, State Department spokesman Tom Casey said: "I didn't realize we ever gave them a formal membership card."

But he held out North Korea as an example for Iran, saying that while the two cases were unique, "we would hope that Iran would see the advantage of working with the international community to resolve the nuclear issue there."

North Korea is on track to get off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, which bracketed the North with Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria. Iraq, after the U.S. military overthrow of Hussein's regime, and Libya, after it gave up a nascent nuclear weapons program, were delisted in recent years.

WIGGLE ROOM

Analysts, including those who welcomed Thursday's moves by North Korea and the United States, said Washington is correct to be wary about upgrading North Korea too quickly.

Derek Mitchell, Asia Expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said North Korean leader Kim Jong-il probably wanted to record some progress under the Bush administration to improve his prospects with Bush's successor.

"He's pretty desperate in terms of his economic climate and I'm sure he got some pressure from China, but I don't see that he's so desperate as to want to move toward resolution of this in the remaining period of the Bush administration," he said.

Bush aides have highlighted the symbolic nature of lifting the terror sponsor classification and the Trading with the Enemy Act and touted the U.S. ability to stop the flow of benefits to North Korea if it begins to renege on the deal.

"If they go back on their word on any of the rest, we can reimpose the sanctions we just lifted today and try and come up with some new creative ones," said a senior U.S. official.

But Bruce Klingner, Asia expert at the Heritage Foundation, said North Korea will be watching U.S. moves closely with an eye toward gaining fresh wiggle room or excuses to stall.

"One wonders how Pyongyang will react to Washington's language that there will be no tangible benefits for removing North Korea from those two lists," he said. "Although it plays well in Washington, and perhaps even Peoria, it is not likely to play well in Pyongyang."

Writing from Hawaii, Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, warned: "While Pyongyang might not be too good at living up to its own promises, it will not budge an inch if it perceives that others are not living up to theirs."

(Editing by Eric Walsh)